Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Russian President Vladimir Putin phoned Donald Trump on June 14, the United States president’s 80th birthday, for about an hour to discuss bilateral relations, the war in Ukraine, and the international situation, including US-Iran relations. Trump again called for a cessation of hostilities in Ukraine and expressed his willingness to influence Kiev and European partners to reach an agreement, while Putin made it clear that Ukraine’s attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure do not change the situation on the front and said that Zelensky, if he wants to talk, should come to Moscow.

Dialogue at the highest level between Russia and the US is gradually being restored, and Putin and Trump, although not allies or friends, have mutual respect as leaders of two great powers. The two leaders are interested in resolving major international crises through diplomacy and are seeking long-term agreements to bring greater stability to the world.

Because the relationship between Putin and Trump is not a friendship but a relationship of mutual respect between two equal partners who realistically assess each other, not through propaganda, and recognize each other’s significant economic, political, and military potential, they want to interact on a solid, long-term basis, and this birthday call confirmed that.

On international issues, Trump is finalizing a peace agreement with Iran and appears to be securing the signing of an important interim agreement that would allow a 60-day ceasefire, reduce tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, and help stabilize the global energy market. However, Iran’s nuclear program would remain unresolved for now and would be discussed during those 60 days. There is hope that, in the end, the parties will sign a permanent agreement after the ceasefire is signed in Geneva on June 19.

Regarding the conflict in the Middle East, Trump clearly confirmed the significant roles of Russia and China, emphasizing that these two powers contributed and provided concrete assistance in reaching the aforementioned agreement.

However, not everyone supports this development. Israel maintains that it does not support either the interim or the final agreement. Israel openly states that its goal is regime change in Iran. Therefore, there is always a risk that Israel will thwart this agreement, using Hezbollah’s endless bombardment as justification, whether immediately on June 19 or later.

All of this is very important for Russia because it sets a precedent that, with certain changes, could be applied to another very dangerous conflict - the Ukraine War. This conversation showed that, in a sense, Trump and Putin are acting on the same side, genuinely seeking a diplomatic solution to this conflict. There is an obvious basis for this – their meeting a year ago in Alaska. The essence of this basis is that the US and Russia agree on a formula for regulating the situation, and the US would then communicate this common formula to Europe and Kiev.

If Trump is truly ready to return to such an approach, as indicated by the tone and known details of the conversation, then he would have to put pressure on Europe and on its puppet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. In that case, peace in Ukraine could be achieved relatively quickly, but whether Trump succeeds will be seen at the end of June.

Zelensky has made his alleged readiness to engage in peace negotiations a central part of his international PR campaign, claiming he is ready to meet with Putin anywhere except in Moscow or Belarus. Putin replies that he is also ready to meet, but only in Moscow. Zelensky’s visit to the Russian capital would signal that he is ready to make concessions, as meetings elsewhere are not intended to resolve the conflict but to serve personal marketing.

Trump will meet with Zelensky at the G7 summit (June 16-17) in France. There, the US president will have the opportunity to speak with Zelensky without reservation and present an extremely clear and difficult choice - either accept the American scenario coordinated with Russia or potentially face serious, personal anti-corruption and even criminal proceedings, which could fundamentally call into question his political legitimacy in the international arena.

Although Trump has been mostly reserved until now, if he really wants to change the situation, as he apparently discussed with Putin, he will be forced to use such methods, because all other measures of influence — financial or otherwise — will not work on Zelensky, who has found new patrons in Europe.

At the G7 summit, France, Germany, and the European Commission leadership will try to influence Trump and bring him back into the framework of the common Atlantic policy, which aims to continue the war in Ukraine and to provide unconditional, blind support for Zelensky. Nonetheless, Trump will try to win over Europe to his approach.

Europe is not currently represented by strong politicians. French President Emmanuel Macron is leaving office in April next year and will no longer be able to influence French politics. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are experiencing historic lows in public approval and are under heavy scrutiny as among the most unpopular leaders in modern polling. As a result, these European leaders will have little ability to influence Trump, who in turn will pressure Zelensky to end the war with Russia.