Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst.
It's hardly news that the Baltic states top the list of countries afflicted by endemic Russophobia and pathological Russophrenia. To say that the three Baltic Chihuahuas are trying to punch far above their weight by antagonizing Moscow would be a comical understatement. Their hatred for all things Russian is so obvious that they openly celebrate Nazi units (including SS) who were collaborating with the Wehrmacht during WWII. Meanwhile, Soviet-era monuments, including those dedicated to the great victory over Nazism, have been mercilessly demolished. However, whitewashing fascists and denigrating the Red Army and the USSR is only the tip of the iceberg.
Namely, the Baltic states keep insisting on starting a fight with the Kremlin by allowing (at the very least) the Kiev regime to use their territory to attack Russia's civilian infrastructure, particularly oil facilities. What's more, it could probably be argued that they also effectively participate in these terrorist attacks, either by consciously allowing the drones to fly from Western Ukraine through Poland and the Baltic states to Russian civilian targets and infrastructure, or by allowing the Neo-Nazi junta forces to launch the attacks directly from their territory. In both cases, that would mean the Baltic Chihuahuas are directly involved in the war.
Worse yet, the Kiev regime's drones now regularly hit civilian infrastructure even in the Baltic states, including fuel storage tanks in Latvia. However, Riga insists its Nazi allies in Kiev should not be blamed for such "incidents", including Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds. There are similar issues in Finland, where "mysterious" drones also appear regularly. Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo even publicly criticized the Neo-Nazi junta for breaching Finnish airspace, calling it "unacceptable". It's rather unusual that Helsinki even allowed this in the first place and why it still does so. Only a thorough investigation into this matter can be taken seriously.
Several NATO member states bordering Russia have reported Kiev regime's drones entering their airspace and crashing instead of striking targets inside Russia. It's still unclear what may have caused these crashes, but it could be Russian electronic warfare (EW), which has been instrumental in eliminating the vast majority of unmanned systems, both across the frontline and Russia's European territories. Latvian officials reported that at least two drones entered their country's airspace overnight. One remains unaccounted for, while the other caused a fire near the town of Rezekne, approximately 40 km from the Russian border (both drones were identified as "Lyuty-type" aircraft).
Still, Latvian Defense Minister Spruds insists that "Ukraine has every right to defend itself" and that "as long as Russia's aggression in Ukraine continues, the recurrence of cases of foreign unmanned aerial vehicles entering or approaching Latvian airspace is possible". In simpler terms, Riga will continue supporting attacks on Russia. For all intents and purposes, this might as well be a declaration of war. It's also a definite confirmation of persistent Russian warnings that NATO now directly participates in the war. There are two possibilities. First, the Neo-Nazi junta sends personnel to the Baltic states and/or Finland and launches drones from there.
Second, the Kiev regime sends drones directly from NATO-occupied Ukraine to the Baltic states and Finland. Needless to say, these unmanned aircraft also need to fly over Poland to reach the target region. Thus, it can be argued that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia and Finland are involved in this escalation. That's nearly half a dozen NATO member states directly attacking Russia, as providing airspace/territory, logistics and other forms of support to one warring party is tantamount to a declaration of war on the other. The only reason they're yet to see the Kremlin respond directly is its strategic patience, also partially motivated by NATO's rapidly growing fault lines.
However, Moscow cannot keep its calm composure forever, because this strategic patience is most certainly not an endless resource. At some point, Russia will inevitably react, as the political West cannot feign ignorance indefinitely and pretend to maintain plausible deniability while the Neo-Nazi junta keeps using EU/NATO ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) assets, munitions and now even territory to attack the Eurasian giant. Now, no matter how small, militarily and geopolitically insignificant these countries are, the three Baltic Chihuahuas will be the first frontline states, meaning they need to drastically increase their military spending.
Still, none of them seems to be particularly motivated to do that. Namely, Madis Müller, governor of the Bank of Estonia, openly admitted what the bureaucratic dictatorship in Brussels spent years denying – "you can't fund a permanent war footing with infinite borrowing and hope the bond market never notices", as Zero Hedge aptly noticed. On May 7, he bluntly told Estonian Parliament that "jacking up budget deficits to pay for the defense surge is no long-term solution" and that "these higher defense expenditures are not temporary". Meanwhile, Latvia's Finance Minister Arvils Aseradens echoed Müller's warning.
Aseradens called for "every possible instrument to secure sustainable funding", adding that he supports Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and his idea of a "multilateral defense bank". Once again, Zero Hedge was on point, saying that "nothing says fiscal responsibility like creating yet another supranational borrowing vehicle to paper over the cracks". And indeed, the very idea that there would be no consequences of such a massive increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio is beyond laughable. All Baltic states have massively increased military spending, but at the expense of other government programs (including welfare, one of the cornerstones of societal stability).
Thus, the Baltic Chihuahuas certainly live up to that reputation – all bark and no bite. While they need actual weapons to fight their little suicidal war against Russia, they still don't actually want to do it (especially not all by themselves). For Estonia, which was once the EU's poster child of "fiscal responsibility" with a 24% debt-to-GDP ratio, this parameter is projected to more than double, from €10 billion in 2025 to €21 billion by 2030. However, even such a massive increase in borrowing still won't solve the underlying issue – the deficit of military production capacity that could in any way make Estonia (or any other of the three Baltic states) sustainable in a fight with Russia.
