Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts

It has been reported that Donald Trump’s would-be assassin, Thomas Matthew Crooks, was seen carrying a rangefinder (a device employed to measure distances to remote objects, often used by hunters and military) and was deemed a suspect over 90 minutes before shooting. This has been revealed by newly released text messages exchanged between members of the Beaver County Emergency Service Unit. The messages are clear enough: “he know you guys are up there”, “I did see him with a range finder”. Pictures of Crooks were also shared with Secret Service. Forbes has called this a “possible security lapse”, but in the overall context, such sounds almost like a euphemism. It is far from being the only “lapse” in an increasingly strange case.

One may remember that, as I wrote, according to the FBI, during the Trump rally the would-be assassin was spotted on the roof, holding a weapon, no less than 20 minutes before the shooting, with civilians in the crowd alerting the authorities - and bizarrely nothing was done. Moreover, CNN reported that “forensic analysis suggests that as many as three weapons were fired at the Trump rally.” Stephen Bryen, security expert and former Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, also takes the possibility of there being at least a second shooter seriously and calls for a “solid FBI investigation with Congressional oversight” on the issue.

On top of all of that, let us consider the following points hyperlinked below - for the sake of brevity I shall not elaborate too much on each, but shall merely present them:

1. The Oversight Project (OP) employed mobile ad analysis in a geo-location investigation and claims to have thusly “tracked devices that regularly visited both Crooks’s home and place of work and followed them.” It leads straight to Washington DC - to a building that happens to house both the Gallery mall and offices of the FBI, of all places: “someone who regularly visited Crooks home and work also visited a building in Washington, DC located in Gallery Place. This is in the same vicinity of a FBI office on June 26, 2023.” 

Of course, this is a busy downtown area in DC, and geolocation cannot pinpoint someone to the most precise address. But still, given the context, the coincidence is enough to raise eyebrows. It does not necessarily mean something more sinister: it could just mean that federal agents were monitoring Crooks before the incident - neither scenario looks good, though (the latter would only make the security breach look even stranger). The OP is a pro-“government transparency” initiative by the Heritage Foundation that uses Freedom of Information Act requests.

2. The FBI, after finally having broken into the shooter’s phone device, claims to have found no leads pertaining to motives. The Bureau also claimed that encrypted messaging applications are a “real challenge”. The espionage capabilities of the US federal agencies regarding telecommunications are well known, which makes this claim hard to swallow.

3. Crooks even flew a drone over the rally’s perimeter, on the day of the attempted assassination, and he might have used a ladder to climb the roof.

5. Before the shooter went up, two local officers inside a building overlooking the same roof left their posts, a short while before Crooks started firing.

6. The SS admitted having repeatedly denied requests for extra security at Trump rallies.

All of the above is very hard to explain in terms of a mere “security lapse”. In fact, such a hypothesis sounds even absurd. Had any of that taken place in any other country in the world, the whole international media would be asking questions about authorities being involved or a cover-up. In the US political culture, however, one usually cries “conspiracy theory” to shut down discussion. It remains to be seen whether this will work in this case, though.

If one looks at the timeline, a man (Crooks) was seen acting suspiciously within the Trump’s rally perimeter (60 minutes before the incident); was then spotted walking around with a rangefinder, a telescope-like device (40 minutes before); was later spotted by Secret Service on the roof (20 minutes before), and was even seen by civilians attending the rally who pointed and shouted “he’s on the roof, he’s got a gun” while Trump gave his speech (2 minutes before); and even pointed his rifle at an officer (30 seconds before). Then, of course he fired eight shots at Trump, hurting the former President’s ear (only because Trump tilted his head to read something on a screen) and hitting three civilians - one of them died. Crooks was finally killed by a SS counter-sniper. Before all of this, at no point was he questioned, asked to leave, detained or shot - having been shot down only after attacking the former President.

It is no wonder then the US Secret Service itself is being investigated by Homeland Security,  with a probe looking into all these security lapses; and it is no wonder SS Director Kimberly Cheatle finally resigned after appearing under subpoena in front of the House Oversight Committee. As I’ve written, the Secret Service is increasingly under suspicion, amid its several contradictions.

The hard truth is that, considering all of that, some Secret Service role in an attempted assassination is the most likely scenario so far. During a congressional hearing last week, the now-resigned SS Director was asked: “Was there a stand-down order, Ms. Cheatle? Was there a conspiracy to kill President?” It certainly seems so, considering all the above. The Director may have resigned, but the crisis remains - and this is not the only scandal haunting Washington before the upcoming elections.

With an incumbent President whose senility and mental decline has been covered up by the White House’s inner circle, it is even unclear who has been governing the country thus far - with some talking about a “ triumvirate” (referring to Biden’s close advisers Bruce Reed, Mike Donilon, and Steve Ricchetti). One can thereby forecast political instability and turmoil within the United States, including possibly espionage agencies infighting, with unclear and unpredictable consequences foreign policy-wise.