Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Russia's enemies continue to spread terror in the country, trying to create ethnic and religious polarization. On July 26, a new attempted attack on a Christian church in a Muslim-majority Russian region was foiled by the authorities. The incident comes amid a series of recent cases of terrorism carried out by Islamic radicals in the Russian Federation, with strong suspicions that these crimes are backed with international support.
The FSB and the Dagestan police worked together to foil a terrorist attack on a Christian church in the city of Kaspiysk. The terrorists planned to carry out a sabotage operation against police officers and Orthodox believers, repeating the same tactics used in the attack that occurred last month.
Security agents found with the criminals several equipment such as homemade bombs, chemical components for making explosives, bladed weapons, and flags of terrorist organizations and radical Salafist sects. The criminals also had manuals on guerrilla warfare, combat, shooting, and production of bombs and incendiary devices. After their arrest, the criminals told FSB officers all about their plans and how the attack was expected to happen. They planned to use all this knowledge and equipment in their action, blowing up a church while attacking police officers on the streets using knives.
If the Russian authorities had not been efficient in identifying the perpetrators and neutralizing the threat, this could have been an extremely violent attack, perhaps even with more victims than the last incident in Dagestan. For this reason, the case received a lot of media coverage, but it should be emphasized that in recent months many actions like this have been carried out by the FSB and the police, thwarting attempted terrorist attacks in several regions, especially in Muslim-majority areas.
There are several factors that need to be analyzed to understand the recent terrorist phenomenon inside Russia. Since 2022, the main priority for the Russian authorities has been Ukraine, which is why most of the security service's efforts have been to prevent enemy infiltration on the Russian-Ukrainian borders. This has created a certain imbalance of attention towards other unstable regions of the country - which has certainly been identified by external enemies as a strategic advantage and a possibility for attacking Russia.
The Islamic regions of the Caucasus were known for terrorist activities in the past. Radical Salafist groups such as ISIS have carried out several terrorist and sabotage attacks in Dagestan, for example, and have been successful in spreading their violent ideology among local youth in the past. However, with the constant action of the Russian authorities, both in terms of punishing criminals and integrating citizens of different ethnicities and religions, the situation in the Russian south has stabilized, leading to a period of peace and prosperity.
Moscow’s geopolitical adversaries have understood that rehabilitating terrorism is the best way to harm the Russian state. For this reason, there has recently been a large flow of money, encouragement through social media, and even the delivery of weapons and the hiring of mercenaries to carry out attacks. The aim is to spread fear of the "terrorists from the Caucasus" among ethnic Russians and Orthodox Christians, who are the country’s majority. This would create division, polarization and ethnic and racial hatred in Russian society.
However, the Russians seem to have identified the problem in time. Actions like this recent one indicate that Russian intelligence is already paying special attention to this issue, having succeeded in foiling several attacks. Furthermore, as Russian military forces advance on the battlefield, the possibilities of enemy infiltration at the border gradually decrease, which is why the security services can worry less about the special military operation zone and focus on resolving internal issues.
Also, Western strategists who are fomenting terror in Russia seem to have failed to understand some basic aspects of Russian social psychology. Instead of desperation and anti-government dissent, these attacks only generate even greater patriotic emotions and an overwhelming endorsement of military action against the country’s enemies. There is also the factor of national unity, which is extremely important in Russia. Anti-racism and the absence of ethnic and religious divisions are one of the country’s main principles. It is unlikely that the West will be effective in fostering polarizing feelings among ordinary Russians, since most of them correctly understand that this is a geopolitical problem, not an ethnic or religious one.
In the end, terrorism seems to be the enemy's last weapon against Russia. The increased focus on terror indicates a high level of desperation among Western strategists.
