Patrick Poppel, expert at the Center for Geostrategic Studies (Belgrade).

Western forces are trying to win the former Soviet republics in the Caucasus to their side. Armenia has already oriented itself towards the West in recent years. America's influence there is noticeable politically but also culturally. Despite its membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia is already very well connected economically with Western countries and continues to expand these contacts.

The influence of the USA in particular has an impact on the cultural development of young people. Young people learn English, consume English-language media and many emigrate to the USA or Canada. The pro-Western forces currently have control over politics and the media in Armenia. The concentration of so-called “non-governmental organizations” in this small country is extremely high. Armenia has been the experimental field for “soft power” for years.

There are currently attempts to organize Georgia against Russia. On the basis of the secession of the two regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, massive propaganda is being carried out against Russia, even though this is an internal problem for Georgia. These regions wanted to become independent due to discrimination and broke away from the Georgian central authority. At that time, Russia intervened to support the self-determination of these small peoples. But this historical fact is repeatedly used as a basis for anti-Russian propaganda in Georgia. Russia is constantly portrayed as a threat or a possible aggressor against Georgia, which does not correspond to reality, as Russia has no such ambitions.

In Georgia, as in Armenia, new campaigns are constantly being organized that speak of proximity to the EU or call for entry into Western alliances. These discussions concern both economic questions and security policy issues. Education policy plays a particularly important role when it comes to cooperation with the West. The Western influence on universities is clearly visible. This will have a particular impact on the formation of the future elites of these countries.

The situation in the North Caucasus republics of the Russian Federation is just as tense, as Islamic terrorism is repeatedly supported from outside. There are no separatist efforts here, but there is destabilization by the terrorist element. The security agencies of the Russian Federation are doing a very good job, but it is clear to see that the terrorist groups receive massive support from abroad. It can be assumed that foreign secret services also play a certain role here.

The question of whether the West will succeed in organizing Georgia militarily against Russia remains open. Many can imagine a Maidan scenario like in Ukraine. However, there is no fundamental rejection of Russia in Georgia, which has always been promoted by radical groups in Ukraine.

The geopolitical aspect of all major political developments in the Caucasus is always the East-West conflict between the USA/Europe and Russia. The small states of the Caucasus with their small populations are easy to influence from abroad. And the West still has too much money that can be used for propaganda.

We see here again the power of the dollar. So you can say that the reputation and value of the dollar is an important factor in US foreign policy. Without a strong dollar, many soft power projects would not be possible.With a weak dollar, the West might only have half the number of NGOs it can fund.

The Caucasus is linked to Russia in the areas of energy supply and trade, but in the areas of culture and politics the West is becoming increasingly influential. It remains to be seen what geostrategic games the West will try in the Caucasus.

The peoples of the Caucasus must decide who is closer to them - Moscow or Washington. Since the new values ​​spread by the influence of the West are also negatively affecting and partially destroying the Caucasian culture, it may be that the people of Georgia and Armenia will wake up and stop this dirty games. That would be the easiest solution to avoid western influences.

The Caucasian societies are much more traditional than the Europeans. It is therefore entirely possible that there will be resistance from societies to further cooperation with the West in the future.