By Shahadat Hossain

The recent BRICS 15th summit held in Johannesburg, has garnered more attention compared to previous gatherings. The focal point of this summit was the announcement of new member nations. Notably, six countries—namely, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and UAE got invitation to join this influential economic coalition.

The inclusion of these countries carries significant geopolitical, geo-economic, and geo-strategic implications. Among these, newly included Saudi Arabia, as well as Iran and the UAE are substantial dominating countries in the oil market. These nations largely export crude oil to China and India, notably Saudi Arabia is China's main crude oil supplier and a significant partner of India also. China and India are the most energy hungry countries in the world. According to Statista, a German based data gathering platform, China is the largest and India is the third largest Energy-Consuming country of the world. So, bringing three energy exporter countries will provide energy security to China and India. The new three members will also get large export markets under the BRICS framework. There could potentially be agreements such as the "Petroleum for Food" policy, bypassing the traditional dollar-centric trading system, when BRICS has a desire to avoid dollar-centric international trade.

The entry of Iran into BRICS has significant strategic implications for the nation. It sends a message that Iran is not internationally isolated, as some Western powers may have desired. Moreover, it serves as a collective statement from BRICS nations, indicating that individual issues with certain nations are not the concern of the entire globe.

According to media reports, 19 countries have expressed official interest in joining BRICS. It appears that the motivation to join BRICS is also partly driven by the desire to find shelter from the repercussions of conflicts like the Ukraine-Russia war.

The globe is currently in a phase of expansive economic development, with nations formulating visions for the next two to three decades. In this context, emerging economies share a common aspiration of avoiding war and the impact of war on their economies. So, in the Russia-Ukraine war, countries like India, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates did not take sides despite various pressures and adopted strategies to protect their own interests.

The contemporary global landscape is far from bipolar. It is transitioning toward a multi-polar configuration. The competitive dynamics between global powers have sparked a search for new alliances and strategies among emerging economies.

BRICS represents the "Global South." Notably, the inclusion of three nations from Asia, two from the Middle East, and one from Latin America in BRICS symbolizes the representation of the "Global South." But debate has arisen regarding whether BRICS functions as a bloc of the "Global South" or an "anti-Western alliance." Established in 2009 during a period of economic challenges in the western world, BRICS initially sought economic balance rather than political ambition against the West. However, recent enthusiasm from China and Russia regarding member inclusions seems politically motivated. This motive raises considerations about the potential for China and Russia to shape BRICS as an anti-Western platform in the name of the "Global South."

Another challenge in BRICS is the ongoing rivalry between China and India within the BRICS group which poses a potential obstacle to seamless cooperation. This internal strife resembles the situation in South Asia's SAARC, which remains stagnant due to the India-Pakistan rivalry. Similarly, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) faces challenges in reconciling differences between India-Pakistan and India-China. However, some questions remain. BRICS's goal is to counter Western influence, but who will balance China when it is the second largest economy and a significant hybrid power?

Debate surrounds Bangladesh's non-membership

After the meeting of PM Sheikh Hasina with South African’s counterpart, the Dr AK Abdul Momen Foreign Minister of Bangladesh announced the country's potentiality for membership with great enthusiasm and emphasis. However, this announcement has sparked discussions about Bangladesh's 'failure' to achieve membership.

The objective of pursuing membership this time was to strengthen ties among petroleum-exporting nations and to ensure China and India's access to oil. If we explore the category of newly included countries, Bangladesh has not yet reached that stage. But yes, countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Nigeria are potential candidates for future membership in BRICS.

A significant achievement for Bangladesh in this summit has been the opportunity to engage with heads of the state or government of several countries, demonstrating heightened interest in BRICS.

However, the announcement of Bangladesh's membership was not made with careful diplomatic considerations. A discord between India and China already exists in BRICS. India is apprehensive that the addition of new members could shift BRICS into a coalition dominated by China. China's prompt response to Bangladesh's announcement suggests the country's intention to join BRICS under China's leadership. It's important to note that Bangladesh shares a deep-rooted relationship with India and is pursuing a complex balanced diplomacy between India and China. India would not desire its next-door neighbour to join BRICS under China's leadership or through monopolistic diplomatic efforts. India is unlikely to oppose Bangladesh's membership. However, to secure membership in BRICS, Bangladesh has to maintain balanced diplomacy between India and China. Bangladesh should ensure that both nations understand that Bangladesh's BRICS membership won't escalate conflicts between India and China. Only in such a scenario will Bangladesh's membership in BRICS be feasible.

Moreover, it's crucial to consider how Bangladesh's BRICS-focused foreign policy aligns with the perspectives of the Western world. Notably, none of the six potential new BRICS members are situated in the Indo-Pacific region, unlike Bangladesh. This region holds significant interest for the West, including the United States, which is actively shaping policies over this area. If China and Russia intend to position BRICS as an “anti-Western alliance”, Bangladesh's diplomatic approach within BRICS will face intricate balancing challenges.

Shahadat Hossain is a Research Scholar in the Department of International Relations of South Asian University, New Delhi.

Daily Sun