Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts
As the idea of “strategic autonomy”, promoted by French President Emmanuel Macron, gains momentum, could Paris and perhaps Berlin lead Europa in that direction? Lawerence Wilkerson, former chief of staff of US Secretary of State Colin Powell, believes so. In an interview to CGTN, he claims NATO’s euphoria won’t last because “Europeans are understanding that one of the purposes of the US support for Ukraine, in addition to making billions of dollars for the defense contractors, is to reestablish our economic and security hegemony over Europe. That’s part of the reason the US is doing it. And Germany’s gonna lead this pack, I think, maybe France too.”
Such statements could be met with some skepticism a few years ago, but in light of Paris’ and Berlin’s latest developments pertaining to foreign relations, they in fact make a lot of sense, at least in the realm of possibilities.
One might recall that, as recently as October 2021, a paper prepared by the European External Action Service (EEAS), the bloc’s foreign service, advised working closely with Washington, and diversifying the supply chain away from Beijing. At the time I wrote that this indicated that European political elites were considering a tougher stance on China. Today, however, the two main European powers are clearly challenging any such notion, “non-alignmentism” is no longer a “Global South” thing: it is now hotly debated in Europe.
French President Emmanuel Macron himself has recently stated that Europeans should not be “America’s followers”. In his April 9 interview to Politico, shortly after having met with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his trip to the Asian country, Macron warned about the “great risk” of Europe getting “caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy”. Here he was referring to the possibility of the EU getting involved in a Chinese-American confrontation over Taiwan because of the bloc’s dependence on Washington. He also emphasized his aforementioned concept of “strategic autonomy” for Europe, thus enabling it to become a “third superpower” between the US and China. The EU, after all, had an estimated GDP of $16.6 trillion (nominal) in 2022, which represents about one sixth of the world’s economy. Plus, it is home to approximately 450 million people.
In order to achieve such autonomy, the French leader said that Europe should focus on promoting defense industries so as to decrease its dependence on the United States for energy and weaponry. According to Macron, if tensions between Beijing and Washington become “heated”, Europeans will not have “the time nor the resources” to finance any strategic autonomy and will thus “become vassals”. He added that the continent should also reduce its dependence on the “extraterritoriality of the US dollar.” These remarks have caused quite a controversy in Europe’s press and political circles, including in Germany. However, many voices have also expressed agreement with Macron. According to the European Council’s president Charles Michel, the French President is far from being isolated in his stance, which, in fact, reflects a “growing shift” among EU leaders.
Amid the ongoing “strategic autonomy” debate, Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, known as a long-time advocate of the “tough” approach towards the Asian superpower, flew to China for a three-day visit, thus signaling a recalibration of EU-China high level exchanges. She stated Berlin has no interest in economically “de-coupling” from Beijing.
In September 2022, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was already calling for a “stronger, more sovereign, geopolitical European Union”. There are some reasons as to why the theme has gained momentum now. In the aftermath of the investigation regarding the explosion of German-Russian Nord Stream’s pipelines (which Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh claims to have been an American sabotage act), more voices within the German broader political spectrum are rethinking German relationship with the US and the very role of NATO. US President Joe Biden’s aggressive subsidies package is yet another factor: the issue is so serious that, in December 2022, Macron said it could “divide the West”.
Traditionally, France’s relationship with the US-led West has always been complex: under Charles de Gaulle, it withdrew from NATO’s so-called integrated military structure in 1966 and even expelled all of its headquarters on French territory. In fact, the spirit of Gaullism still shaped to some degree Paris’ strategic thinking during the Cold War. Even under President Miterrand, French membership to NATO was described as a “flexible” one. It was President Nicolas Sarkozy who ended the so-called Paris “estrangement” from the Alliance in 2009, that is 43 years after 1969. In April 2022, defeated presidential candidate Marine Le Pen was promising to pull Paris out of the Atlantic Alliance. Although Macron has not gone so far, ironically the spirit of Gaullism seems to be partially alive in him too.
Macron’s own domestic crisis might however make it difficult for him to play a major role in building an all-European foreign policy, according to Hall Gardner, a professor of international relations at the American University of Paris.
Moreover, structurally speaking, even though the EU spends $200 billion on defense annually (and thus should be a global military power), such European spending on defense typically takes place at the nation-state level and not within the framework of collective defense - hence its dependence on Washington for security. The EU today is, in fact, more dependent than ever on the American superpower. Breaking away from it would require re-industrializing, something which Washington has always hindered.
Europe seems to be at a crossroads about its role in the global arena. It is about time Europe asserts its sovereignty in the emerging polycentric world. This, nonetheless, is not an easy endeavor by any means.
