By Matija Šerić
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was inaugurated as the new Brazilian president on the first day of the new year 2023 in Brasilia. The inauguration was accompanied by a celebration called “Lulapalooza”, which was marked by many songs, dances, carnival-style parades and rock concerts. It will be Lula’s third presidential term, since he was already president in two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2010. Then he left an indelible mark in Brazilian history. Because of his fight for the poor and disenfranchised, he won the hearts of millions of Brazilians. Many poor sections of Brazilian society see him as a national hero, which is not without reason.
Lula was the first Brazilian president from a working-class origin who helped lift millions of ordinary citizens out of the scourge of poverty. He promised big changes in the mega-country of more than 200 million people, which is known for its huge gap between rich and poor. Lula made Brazil a respectable country with strong economic growth and a member of the BRICS. He left the office of the president with an approval rating of an incredible 80%. Lula is globally praised for his achievements, and on one occasion Barack Obama called him “the most popular politician on Earth”, a statement that is not far from the truth.
The 77-year-old Lula will now (12 years after leaving the office of President of the Federal Republic of Brazil) try to continue his work in rather changed circumstances. In the meantime, he ended up in prison, and Brazil fell into an economic crisis, recession, fierce internal political struggles and lost its status as a potential superpower in international relations.
From the prison cell to the presidential palace Palácio da Alvorada
In July 2017, Lula was sentenced to nine-and-a-half years in prison on money laundering and corruption charges. Allegedly engineering firm OAS gave hime luxury beachfront apartment in exchange for his help in securing a deal with Petrobras. The federal judge in the case, Sergio Moro, later became minister of justice and public security in Bolsonaro’s government. After an unsuccessful appeal, Lula was arrested in April 2018 and spent 580 days in prison. He attempted to run in the 2018 presidential election, but was disqualified under Brazil’s Ficha Limpa law.
However, a turning point occurred in November 2019 when Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court ruled that the imprisonment was illegal and Lula was released from prison. In March 2021, Federal Supreme Court Justice Edson Fachin ruled that all of Lula’s convictions must be overturned because he was tried by a court that did not have proper jurisdiction over his case. In April 2021, the Supreme Court restored Lula’s political rights, and Judge Moro, who presided over his corruption trial, was later found to be biased. All cases Moro brought against Lula were dismissed in June 2021.
Lula is legally allowed to run for president again in the 2022 election. He narrowly defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 runoff by less than 2% of the vote. This resulted in protests, riots, the setting up of barricades and explosive devices by the right wing, which eventually called on the Brazilian army to intervene, take over power and return Bolsonaro to the Palácio da Alvorada. The controversial right-wing president and his supporters believe that Lula’s victory is illegal, and it is no wonder that they decided to take such steps.
Military intervention in Latin American countries is not rare, it happened often during the 20th century. Normally, the military would take over in times of instability, establish order and a technical government, and create the conditions for new elections. This time, however, it did not happen and Lula came to power as planned. Bolsonaro left the country and went to Florida, which reduced the risk of possible further unrest in the country. Given that Bolsonaro was absent, he did not hand over the presidential ribbon, which is a common tradition. Instead, Lula was presented with the ribbon by ordinary Brazilians, including an indigenous leader, a man with cerebral palsy and a dark-skinned young man – a ceremonial move that symbolizes the diversity of Brazilian society.
A fiercely divided country
It is certain that Lula will not have an easy time at the head of a fiercely divided nation, and few would actually want to be the president of the most populous country in South America today. Lula has repeatedly said that he will rule on behalf of all Brazilians, including those who voted for Bolsonaro. It should be borne in mind that Bolsonarianism has not died- Bolsonaro’s allies and the right have a strong foothold in both chambers of the Brazilian National Congress.
Namely, the right achieved huge electoral successes in the elections for Congress, and Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party became the largest bloc in the fragmented House of Representatives (99 out of 513 seats) and the Federal Senate (13 out of 81 seats). Moreover, in gubernatorial elections, Bolsonaro-backed candidates won in 14 of Brazil’s 27 states – including the country’s three most populous states: Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. Several of Bolsonaro’s former ministers were elected to the upper and lower houses of Congress. This suggests far less stability to Lula’s tenure than he enjoyed during the 2000s.
Brazil is making a grand return to geopolitics
As soon as Lula da Silva assumed his new mandate, his foreign minister, Mauro Vieira, declared that the main objective of Brazil’s foreign policy would be to return the country to the spotlight. In other words, Brazil will again try to be an important regional but also global power, which it was de facto during the first and second term of Lula, and this is the status that it lost during the mandates of Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro when the country entered the an endless sea of internal problems that made it impossible for her to get more involved on the outside.
“Brazil is back,” Vieira said in a speech held at the Itamaraty Palace, headquarters of the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. According to him, it is necessary to “restore the diplomatic heritage” and return the Latin American giant “to the stage of international relations” since the country was distanced due to “limited ideological vision”.
Vieira said he was aware that Brazil “has a lot to do to rebuild” its foreign relations, a role the former president has given little importance to. He pointed out that President Lula’s first instruction was to open channels of dialogue that had been blocked in recent years, for example to restore relations with Venezuela, on which work was immediately started since there was no time to lose. Strengthening ties with Latin American countries will be a priority of Brazilian diplomacy and will do so through multilateral organizations such as the South American trade bloc Mercosur, the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC) and the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR).
Also, the minister confirmed that care for the environment will get a central place in foreign policy – Brazil will be oriented towards sustainable development. Lula spent his first full day in office in a series of bilateral meetings with South American leaders. There he presented the idea of a regional summit on the protection of the Amazon rainforest in the first half of this year. At international summits, they will promote racial and gender equality and respect for human rights.
Undoubtedly, Vieira is Lula’s ideal confidant to implement such a foreign policy since he is a career diplomat with almost 50 years of experience who has held the most responsible positions. He was ambassador to Argentina from 2004 to 2010, ambassador to the USA between 2010 and 2014, minister of foreign affairs in 2015 and 2016 in the Rousseff government, and permanent representative of Brazil to the UN from 2016 to 2020. His last function before the current one was the position of ambassador of Brazil in the Republic of Croatia from 2020 to 2022.
International dialogue and multilateralism, not sanctions
There is no doubt that Lula’s vision of international relations and global order is based on international dialogue, multilateralism and multipolarity, which he has unequivocally stated on several occasions. Lula’s vision rejects the American division of the world into the democratic camp (USA, EU and allies) vs. authoritarian camp (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Cuba, etc.) as well as calls for confrontation between these two camps.
“We will have relations with everyone,” said Lula in his inaugural speech. When he mentions the dialogue, Lula means breaking with the policy of isolating the enemy, and offers diplomatic solutions as an alternative. When representatives of the Biden administration call for sanctions against Russia, it is clearly opposed by people from the former or current Lula administration. “I am against sanctions,” said former foreign minister Celso Amorim and the current chief adviser to the president. “They will not help to solve anything, but will create problems for the whole world”. The new Brazilian administration has the same approach towards America’s enemies in the region. Brazil recognizes the government of Nicolás Maduro and condemns the US trade and financial blockade of Cuba.
Support for multilateralism means that Lula’s administration opposes unilateral coercive measures and believes that problems should be solved in multilateral international forums. Lula’s cabinet perceives multilateralism as adherence to good existing treaties and agreements such as the Paris climate agreement, but also as the need to reform some bodies such as the UN (e.g. reform of the Security Council), and as an effort to make Brazil a leader in the global south. The last two ideas will definitely not appeal to American policymakers because the Biden administration has repeatedly shown that the US intends to lead the way on the global stage.
A multipolar international order with Brazil as the leader of the global south
Multipolarity is perceived by Lula’s administration as avoiding conflict between blocs, and includes the ambition to build a new world order that would be fairer. At the same time, Brazil focuses mostly on its western hemisphere: it wants to connect Latin American countries into political and trade blocs independent of the USA. A good example is UNASUR and CELAC, which are an alternative to the US-dominated Organization of American States (OAS). Lula’s position that Brazil should belong to an international bloc independent of the US risks direct conflict with the Biden administration.
Back in 2008, Lula presided over the establishment of a new global economic and political bloc that brought Brazil together with Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). On his return to office, Lula threw his support behind proposals to expand the bloc and introduce a new BRICS payment system to facilitate more trade between its members independent of the US dollar. In addition, Lula will try to achieve strong bilateral relations with China and African countries.
Most importantly, Lula and his moderate left-wing cabinet do not believe that Brazil should be part of the so-called of the “free world” led by the USA. They believe that such a concept is outdated and that the time has come to form a fairer world multipolar order and that Brazil’s task in such an order is to take a positive role through an assertive and independent foreign policy. Lula’s Brazil does not want to be anyone’s satellite country, much less an oppressor, in fact it wants to become an initiator of positive changes, a leader of the global south and a pillar of an equal international order. A country with 217 million inhabitants and 8.5 million square kilometers certainly deserves it.
Matija Šerić is a geopolitical analyst and journalist from Croatia and writes on foreign policy, history, economy, society, etc.
Eurasia Review
