Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
On 8 April 2022, a "Tochka-U" short-range ballistic missile hit the railway station in the city of Kramatorsk. As of 10 April, Ukrainian officials reported that 57 people were killed and 109 wounded as a result of the attack. The Kiev regime claims the attack was conducted by Russia, while Moscow vehemently rejects these claims. The attack happened just as the troops of the Russian ground forces and the People's Militia of Donetsk People's Republic (NM DNR) were making progress in western areas of the Donetsk oblast.
At first, Ukrainian officials gave contradicting statements. While Kiev's top propagandist Aleksey Arestovich claimed that a Russian ground-based hypersonic quasi-ballistic missile "Iskander-M" was used in the attack, other Ukrainian sources confirmed the attack was conducted with the much older Soviet-era short-range ballistic missile known as the "Tochka-U". This fact alone immediately made claims by the Ukrainian side much more complicated.
The "Tochka-U" is a Soviet tactical short-range ballistic missile which entered service in 1976. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, both Ukraine and Russia inherited large numbers of missiles and transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicles. However, by 2006, Russia already started replacing these missiles with the much more capable "Iskander" hypersonic quasi-ballistic missiles. By the late 2010s, Russia's inventory was retired, as the last combat units to replace their "Tochka-U" missiles did so in 2019. The missile simply did not meet the standards of the Russian military. With a circular error probability (CEP) of 70-150 m, the missile is considered too inaccurate for precision strikes.
The Ukrainian military, on the other hand, still operates these missiles. Russian air and anti-missile defenses have shot down dozens of "Tochka-U" missiles fired by Ukrainian forces. Many of these missiles were armed with cluster munitions warheads. On the morning of March 14, around 11:20 AM local time, the Ukrainian military struck the center of Donetsk with one such "Tochka-U" equipped with cluster munitions warhead. At least 27 civilians were killed, with at least another 20 suffering wounds. Naturally, this went largely unreported in Western media, while some outlets even used images of the massacre and claimed it was perpetrated by Russian forces.
Cluster munitions are designed to inflict maximum damage to ground forces, specifically infantry, causing death and maiming soldiers. The usage of these weapons, even against soldiers, is considered inhumane. However, using them against civilians cannot be justified in any conceivable way and should automatically be considered a war crime. At the time of the missile strike, there were no large formations of infantry in Donetsk. They were all at the frontlines, so it's safe to say that targeting Donetsk was of no military value. And yet, the Ukrainian military still did it. Worse yet, the strike targeted the center of the city, where there is no military infrastructure or equipment. There can be no other explanation but that civilians were deliberately targeted.
Another important note which should be taken into account is that the Kiev regime's policies towards the people of eastern and southern Ukraine, particularly towards the people of Donbass, have alienated the inhabitants of the area. Worse yet, many top officials of the post-Maidan regime have called the locals "subhuman", going as far as to call for their removal and even extermination. Needless to say, this only implies that seeing the people of Donbass as cannon fodder is a "natural" state of affairs for the regime in Kiev. Which brings us back to the main issue of Ukrainian claims that Russia targeted civilians in Kramatorsk.
As we have already noted, the missile strike on the Kramatorsk train station was conducted in the same manner as the one which targeted the Donetsk city center. Cluster munitions warhead was used, just as in Donetsk nearly a month prior. With Russia retiring its last stockpile of "Tochka-U" missiles years ago, the question remains, who else could've fired the missile? The Ukrainian side is claiming that Russia reinstated the missile in February of this year.
Western media are making the same argument, claiming that "independent open-source" media have reportedly seen the missiles in Belarus. The issue with this is that Belarus is some 900 km away from the area. "Tochka-U" has a maximum firing range of around 150-180 km. Also, the military of Belarus officially still uses these missiles, so seeing them there is hardly evidence that they've been reinstated in Russian service.
In addition to these facts, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated they have determined that the missile was fired from the area of Dobropolye, which is located approximately 45 km to the southwest of Kramatorsk. The area is under the control of the Ukrainian military. The Russian MoD has also determined the unit which operates in the area - the 19th missile brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the same one which has already fired numerous "Tochka-U" missiles at Donetsk in the last 8 years.
Another important note also has to do with the missile's serial number. The discarded rocket boosters of these missiles have the serial numbers written on the side, clearly showing the batch they belonged to. The missile used in the attack on Kramatorsk had the serial number which suggests it came from the same batch used in one of the previous missile strikes against Donetsk, perpetrated by the Ukrainian military.
For the Russian military to be able to conduct this strike, they would've had to infiltrate the Ukrainian 19th missile brigade located in the area of the Dobropolye, take the Ukrainian missile (so it would have the Ukrainian serial number), place it on one of their 9P129 TEL trucks (which they don't use anymore) and then fire it into a crowd of Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens in Kramatorsk. If this makes any sense, then maybe the Russians did target the civilians at Kramatorsk. At least that's what the Ukrainian side is claiming, supported by the Western media and government officials. The same media and government officials which claimed that Saddam Hussein had biological and chemical weapons.
