By Yaroslav Lissovolik

The idea of an alliance of Russia, India and China (RICs) has served as a crucial catalyst to the creation of the BRICS bloc and the reinvigoration of regional cooperation in Eurasia. This vision of cooperation among the three non-Western Eurasian powers is currently going through a period of renaissance on the back of the thawing of bilateral ties between China and India. While the geopolitical importance of this Eurasian triad has been widely acknowledged in terms of its role in boosting South-South cooperation, it may also be expedient to explore the economic possibilities that are opened by the formation and the strengthening of this alliance. In our view the RICs could serve as a key connectivity mechanism between the regional integration projects in Eurasia, which in turn opens the prospects for a more global role that this Eurasian Troika may play in the world economy.

At the regional level, the RICs is well placed to serve as the core of the Greater Eurasia platform that may bring together not only the main developing economies of the region, but also its key regional integration blocs. In building the circle of regional integration blocs from Eurasia, the RICs can advance their respective regional arrangements – the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia), SAARC/BIMSTEC (India), SCO (China). The two key Eurasian regional blocs that could complement this troika of regional arrangements are ASEAN and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – indeed one of the formats pursued in the context of the Greater Eurasian Partnership is the SCO-EAEU-ASEAN platform. The resulting five-member circle of Eurasian regional blocs may be referred to as SAGES (SCO, ASEAN, GCC, EAEU, SAARC) and may serve as the backbone for the evolving Greater Eurasia project. Forming this Eurasian circle of regional integration arrangements may be facilitated by the recent strengthening of ASEAN and GCC ties with China in the context of this year’s China-ASEAN-GCC meeting.

Within the BRICS framework, the RICs could serve as a key connectivity mechanism between BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Indeed, apart from the SCO-EAEU-ASEAN track of cooperation in Eurasia, another trajectory in the Eurasian “integration of integrations” roadmap is the SCO-EAEU-BRICS formation. The latter format in turn opens the possibility of building a wider network of regional integration arrangements on the basis of a BEAMS/BEAMS+ framework (BIMSTEC, EAEU, AfCFTA, Mercosur, SCO).

At the global level, the RICs could advance greater connectivity between the regional integration blocs in forums such as the G20. One possible format in this respect is the regional 20 (R20) to be advanced via creating a G20 engagement group that would in turn represent the first global platform for regional integration blocs. Each of the RICs could initiate and then advance the R20 agenda during their respective G20 presidencies, with RICs partners from the Global South within the G20 providing support in building sufficient momentum for such an arrangement to become entrenched.

Apart from the theme of creating a platform for regional integration blocs, the RICs stand to play a crucial role in the transportation/logistical connectivity in Eurasia. In view of their territorial scale, the RICs account for the bulk of intra-continental connectivity pathways, which makes them key drivers in the creation of Eurasia’s North-South and East-West connectivity corridors. The RICs would also be critical in co-integrating and reconciling the North-South and the East-West axis of connectivity efforts, making sure that such tracks are complementary and mutually reinforcing.

Furthermore, the RICs also share borders with the bulk of Asia’s landlocked countries (Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Nepal), which raises the importance of providing support to such economies at the level of global organizations and international forums. All three members of the RICs troika enjoy extended coastal access, are positioned in different parts of Eurasia – Russia in North/Northeast Eurasia, China in East/Southeast Eurasia and India in South Asia – and serve as crucial connectivity gateways for the in-between inland territories that depend on access to trade routes and coastal infrastructure.

Apart from Eurasia, a similar intriguing geo-economic pattern is observed in other two major regions of the Global South, namely in Africa and in South America, where the three largest coastal economies are positioned in different parts of their continents surrounding the respective continental heartlands. In Africa, the largest continental economies by GDP in PPP terms – South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria – are positioned in different parts of the continent (South Africa, North Africa and West Africa respectively) and may serve as crucial connectivity gateways for Africa’s inland regions and landlocked economies such as Botswana, Niger and Chad. The picture is similar in South America with the largest coastal economies of Brazil, Argentina and Colombia providing logistical connectivity to landlocked economies such as Paraguay and Bolivia. Accordingly, at the level of BRICS+/Global South, the RICs could lead the formation of a Tri-continental Troika mechanism that brings together the Troikas of the largest economies from Eurasia, Africa and South America. The key focus of such a Troika mechanism would be the coordination of efforts in regional economic integration across the developing world and the support to be provided to the inland/landlocked economies of the Global South.

In the end, the RICs format may well transcend the limits of a regional integration effort in Eurasia. The assembly of Eurasia’s blocs of economic cooperation hinges crucially on the coordinated efforts of the region’s largest counterparts, but the real task in re-building global economic governance and in advancing greater South-South trade and economic cooperation is even more massive in scale. Apart from the coordination challenges of promoting economic cooperation among the regional integration projects of the developing world there is of course also the future of the global financial system that needs greater optionality in the form of more national currencies and payment systems coming from the emerging market space. The RICs may be the critical link and the key engine of this global economic transformation that enables the economic potential of Eurasia and the Global South to be finally realized. bia)

Yaroslav Lissovolik is Founder of BRICS+ Analytics.