The COVID-19 pandemic-induced crisis has led to significant economic losses and made the social fabric of the BRICS countries fragile by amplifying unemployment, poverty, gender disparity and migration risks, according to the BRICS Economic Bulletin released recently. The BRICS grouping consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
The Reserve Bank of India released the bulletin prepared by the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA) Research Group with members from BRICS central banks. India is the current chair of the BRICS. The CRA Research Group was set up to enhance research, economic analysis and surveillance capacity of the BRICS.
The crisis has indiscriminately affected all countries, adding that the BRICS were no exception as they have also been seriously hit by the pandemic and are trying to recover from it, the bulletin said. However, there is a significant heterogeneity among the BRICS in the duration and intensity of the pandemic.
“While China could largely contain the spread of the debilitating infection, other BRICS countries have witnessed multiple waves of infection,” it said.
The COVID crisis has led to significant economic losses and made the social fabric of the BRICS fragile by amplifying unemployment, poverty, gender disparity and migration risks, the bulletin noted.
As per the bulletin, there is convincing evidence of a recovery of the BRICS from the deep, pandemic-induced contraction in 2020. However, the recovery shows significant divergence amongst the BRICS members.
“China has been able to control the infections effectively which has aided its quick recovery. While the pace of economic growth is gradually picking up in India and Brazil, Russia and South Africa are yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels of economic activity,” it said.
Further, the bulletin said that since the threat of COVID remains unabated in the BRICS, it is difficult to estimate the robustness of this recovery.
“Going forward, the pace and efficacy of vaccination is going to be the most important determinant of economic recovery,” it said.
According to the bulletin, if the growth momentum in the BRICS countries, especially in China, slows down, global recovery could also see further headwinds to its growth momentum.
Apart from the uncertainty from COVID, tightening of global financial conditions and persistent economic and structural changes arising from the crisis are other factors engendering concern in the BRICS countries, it said.
The bulletin also said that BRICS countries should seize the opportunities that might emerge amid the crisis by planning for and working towards a bright post-pandemic future. https://www.fibre2fashion.com/news/textile-reports-results-news/covid-crisis-results-in-significant-economic-losses-for-brics-277919-newsdetails.htm * * *
Excerpts from BRICS Economic Bulletin
The health crisis of COVID-19 turned into an economic crisis and resulted in one of the deepest recessions experienced in many decades. The April 2021 WEO estimated that about 95 million people have fallen below the threshold of extreme poverty in 2020 compared with pre-pandemic projections. The International Labour Organisation, while studying the impact of COVID-19 on labour markets for 2020, estimated an 8.8 percent decline in working hours, 8.3 percent decline in global labour income and employment losses to the tune of 81 million. The lockdown imposed by several countries has resulted in considerable job losses in informal sectors and an exodus of migrant workers. The medium and long-term impact of the coronavirus is still unfolding as the pandemic continues to rage globally. To draw a comparison with the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920, Barro et.al, studied the macroeconomic impact of the Flu and estimated that it resulted in a 6 percent decline in real GDP per capita and 8 percent decline in real consumption. Since the COVID-19 pandemic is still not behind us, it is difficult to estimate the total economic losses due to COVID-19.
It was a challenging task to frame appropriate policies which are calibrated to the stage of the pandemic, emerging economic situation, and socio-economic circumstances of individual countries. Countries responded to the pandemic with aggressive fiscal and monetary policy support measures with a view to alleviating the adverse impact of the pandemic on the lives and livelihoods of the people. The IMF WEO April 2021 observed that unprecedented economic policy actions have prevented far worse outcomes with an estimation that the collapse could have been about at least three times as large had it not been for the swift policy support worldwide. The BRICS countries, like others, have also been proactive in providing policy support with a view to shielding against the adverse economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and accelerating the economic recovery post-COVID. In this process, the BRICS countries have used both conventional and unconventional measures.
While the first half of 2020 was a tale of lockdown and stringent containment, the second half of 2020 was more about opening up. While the first half of 2020 was a story of contraction, the second half of 2020 witnessed economic variables touching the pre-pandemic levels.Green shoots of economic activity have become visible; the leading indicators suggest a faster recovery; many countries have come out of negative growth and the balance of payments (BoP) variables have started behaving in a pre-pandemic mannerin the second half of 2020. So, the preliminary evidence during this period was pointing to resilience and recovery of economies in H2: 2020. However, subsequent surges in infections in the form of multiple waves and with multiple variants having greater transmissibility and lethality, raises questions about the pace, path and robustness of the recovery, going ahead.
While there are expectations of a stronger recovery in the second half of 2021 and 2022 formost of the BRICS countries, multiple issues remain to be resolved. The pertinent questions relate to divergences in the speed of recovery both across and within countries and the potential for persistent economic and structural changes arising from the crisis. While many economic indicators indicate a recovery, how robust would this recovery be? What other factors would shape the trajectory of the recovery? What structural changes would the current crisis lead to? Obviously, these are difficult questions to answer at this juncture. However, we will be able to provide some indicative answers to these questions by focusing on the behavior of economic variables, responses to the policy support, evidence of recovery and future risks and challenges.
Against the above backdrop, the BRICS Bulletin 2021, prepared by the CRA Research Group, would focus on the ‘BRICS Experience of Resilience and Recovery’. The 2020 BRICS Economic Bulletin compared the economic situation during COVID-19 pandemic (H1: 2020) with the pre-pandemic period and covered policy support and potential future areas of cooperation. While this year’s Bulletin will provide a continuity to the narrative set in last year’s Bulletin, it would primarily explore the evidence of resilience and recovery after H1: 2020. This assessment would reveal the strength and weakness of the BRICS economies in the short to medium term, indicating the reforms needed to strengthen post-pandemic growth impulses.
A BRICS collaborative study has been undertaken by a group of researchers from the BRICS central banks for the first time in 2021. The study has focused on the dynamics of balance of payments (BoP) in the BRICS during the COVID-19 period. It has made an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 crisis on balance of payments in the BRICS economies and the dominant channel of transmission vis-а-vis previous crises. https://brics2021.gov.in/brics/public/uploads/docpdf/getdocu-72.pdf -------------------- Joint Statement on Results of Russian-South African Scientific Mission to Study Features of New Coronavirus Infection
Russian-South African scientific mission to study the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of the new coronavirus infection caused by the genetic variant omicron (hereinafter referred to as the Mission) was organized in accordance with the agreement between the presidents of Russia and the Republic of South Africa and took place in South Africa from 13 to 22 December 2021.
From the Russian side, 20 leading scientists and experts of Rospotrebnadzor and the Ministry of Health of Russia took part in the Mission, including representatives of the Central Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor, the Russian Research Institute “Microbe” of Rospotrebnadzor, the State Scientific Center of Virology and Biotechnology “Vector” of Rospotrebnadzor, the Volgograd Research Institute of Rospotrebnadzor, etc.
From the Republic of South Africa, leading scientists and experts from the Department of Health, South African Medical Research Council, National Institute of Communicable Diseases, National Health Laboratory Network, Stellenbosch University, Durban University, Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, Charlotte Maxeke Johannesburg Academic Hospital, and Jubilee District Hospital of Gauteng Province took part in the mission.
During the mission the parties organized three working groups (epidemiological, virological and clinical) and consulted on the full spectrum of issues related to fighting the new coronavirus infection, including features related to the omicron variant in the areas of epidemiology, laboratory diagnosis, virological monitoring, immunology, clinical features, and therapy of infection.
The consultations were held in a spirit of openness, scientific interest and with a focus on the development of both bilateral and multilateral cooperation in the fight against infectious diseases within BRICS.
Scientists from the RSA provided information on the epidemiological situation, organization of laboratory diagnosis of COVID-19, genetic monitoring, assessment of features of the “omicron” strain of the SARS-CoV-2. There was an opportunity to learn the structure of the country’s healthcare system, the algorithm of patients triage and national protocol of medical care for patients with COVID-19, level I-III hospitals in the province of Gauteng.
There were organized visits to central and district medical institutions, and diagnostic laboratories in Johannesburg and Pretoria. South African scientists shared information on the features of the identification and differentiation of the new variant “omicron” from other variants circulating in the population, including on the basis of clinical data.
Russian scientists shared their experience in fighting new coronavirus infection, organizing epidemiological monitoring, studying the genetic features of the infectious agent of coronavirus infection, assessing the immune status of those infected and vaccinated in the context of protection against new genetic variants of the coronavirus.
The participants of the joint mission discussed the features of a new coronavirus infection caused by the omicron strain and its impact on the spread of infection, the severity of the clinical course, medical care and vaccination. In the course of the mission data were obtained on the epidemiological characteristics of the new genetic variant and the features of its distribution in the RSA. The increased transmissibility of the omicron variant from person to person has been shown, resulting in increased incidence (the baseline reproductive rate increased to 2.5 in December, doubling time of 3.18-3.61 days) and an increase in the positive sample rate to 35.5% with no indication of a more severe clinical course.
It is noted that considering the significant number of South African residents who have had COVID-19 and demographic differences, the data on clinical severity can be adjusted in the conditions of the spread of the omicron variant in the Russian Federation.
It was noted that young age groups played a significant role at the initial stage of the spread of infection. It was also shown that the densely populated Tshwane district, which includes the capital city of Pretoria and which is near to the economic hub of Johannesburg, was the location of the initial clusters of transmission of the genetic variant “omicron”.
A phylogenetic lineage independent of the “delta” and “beta” variants and the possibility to use genotyping PCR assay for rapid identification of a new SARSCoV-2 virus gene variant have been convincingly demonstrated. There is a high incidence of SARS-CoV2 infection in younger patients, especially in children in the initial stages (up to 50% of all patients seeking medical care for various reasons are infected), clinical characteristics of influenza, large number of asymptomatic cases and population seropositivity of up to 70% in the RSA.
The course of the disease is more severe among unvaccinated people with risk factors, especially in older age groups, high frequency (15-20% overall) of reinfection and infection in vaccinated people is characterized by a milder course. During the mission, Russian specialists made a presentation of the Rospotrebnadzor mobile laboratory which is mounted on an automobile chassis. The possibilities of its joint use for epizootological monitoring of dangerous infections in remote areas of South Africa were discussed.
Based on the results of the joint Mission, the participants agreed on:
- Taking into account the need to develop bilateral scientific cooperation in the field of fighting epidemics;
- Noting the contribution that scientists from Russia and the RSA are making to global efforts to combat the pandemic of a new coronavirus infection;
- Expressing commitment to the protection of public health as the primary goal of the fight against the pandemic;
Emphasizing that anti-epidemic measures should be scientifically justified, noted that:
The level of monitoring for a new coronavirus infection in South Africa made it possible to promptly identify a new genetic variant of concern, called omicron, and to inform the international community of the risks associated with its spread; The study of epidemiological features, clinical characteristics, molecular and genetic properties of circulating pathogens, and cooperation of existing national and regional sequencing networks underlie the identification of new virus variants with high epidemic potential;
Studies of the efficiency of immunological protection both after vaccination and after a previous disease or their combination show that compared to the initial variant, the degree of neutralization of the omicron variant is reduced from 3 to 41 times, depending on immunological status. Thus, the disease, followed by vaccination or re-vaccination, is likely to increase the effectiveness of neutralization and provide protection from the severe course of the disease when infected with the “omicron” variant;
Scientific cooperation and data exchange serve as the basis for making sciencebased decisions, including restrictions on cross-border movement. Taking into account the global spread of the omicron variant, which has already been identified in 94 countries of the world and the newly obtained data on the danger of a new genetic variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, the further ban on air traffic between states has lost its relevance;
Openness, commitment to a common task to fight coronavirus infection pandemic and close cooperation between scientists of the Russian Federation and the Republic of South Africa give confidence in the soonest victory of world science over the pandemic;
Scientists of the Russian Federation and the Republic of South Africa are intensifying the exchange of data and research results in the field of epidemiology, virology, immunology, pathogenesis and therapy of new coronavirus infection. As a result of the joint mission, other areas of scientific cooperation in the field of epidemic prevention and response were identified and a draft road map for scientific cooperation between Russia and the RSA in this area for 2022-2024 was developed.
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