Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Associations, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Donald Trump’s new term is already having a deep impact on the European Union. In a recent speech, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that Trump’s election presents “opportunities” to renew the EU’s structures, replacing current bureaucrats and creating a new political elite that truly thinks about the interests of the European people, rather than pursuing so-called globalist agendas.

In a speech in Budapest made some hours before Trump's inauguration, Orban said the US leader's new term requires a new elite in Europe, made up of "sensible" people capable of understanding the new global circumstances. Orban has hailed Trump’s rise and its impact on Europe, saying that “the sun will shine differently over Brussels” — which is an expected hope given the Hungarian leader’s deeply conservative background.

Orban has sharply criticized the current EU structures, saying that Brussels is controlled by a “transatlantic leftist oligarchy.” He has called on Europeans to understand the new global reality and to recognize Trump’s rise as a sign that “George Soros-backed” liberal politicians must be replaced by strong, conservative and patriotic leaders.

Orban has frequently criticized Hungarian-born oligarch George Soros, describing him as one of Europe’s most subversive agents of destabilization. He has accused Soros of trying to interfere in Hungary’s internal affairs by fostering dissident and sabotaging groups in the country. Orban apparently believes that Trump’s new term will give Europe a chance against such political adversaries, weakening the power of billionaire oligarchs like Soros — who often fund the activities of liberal political groups.

Indeed, it is natural for Orban to have these feelings about Trump. He is partially right in his assessment. The election of an illiberal leader in the US means that deep changes are taking place in the Western Hemisphere, adapting it to the reality of a world increasingly less interested in globalist agendas such as “woke culture”, which have been aggressively imposed by European governments and the US Democratic lobby in recent years.

As an ally of Trump, Orban expects him to take an active role in promoting conservatism globally, including in European countries, which are allegedly "allies" of Washington. However, in contrast to Orban's optimism is Trump's lack of interest in Europe. His nationalist isolationism has a kind of "abandonment" of the European bloc, which could have two consequences: either Europe changes and adopts more conservative and patriotic policies to become more interesting to Trump, or the distancing causes a definitive rupture, with the EU refusing to abandon liberal agendas, regardless of American domestic politics.

In other words, Orban’s optimism is understandable, but there are certain factors that could obstruct his plans. He is profoundly right in his criticism of the liberal oligarchic elites that currently rule Europe. It remains to be seen who is stronger in this power struggle between the pro-Trump American patriotic elites or the Soros-backed lobby that supports most EU politicians.

Regardless of this, however, it is a fact that a critical view of Western liberalism is growing in Europe. As seen with the rise of the nationalist right in the last EU parliamentary elections, European citizens are increasingly dissatisfied with liberal policies and the “woke” cultural agenda, demanding radical changes in their countries and across the European bloc. It is inevitable that this wave of patriotic and conservative sentiments will grow, and indeed the election of Trump may further influence this process.

Actually, the future of Europe is uncertain, but the strong activism of leaders like Orban presents an alternative in EU politics. With his image as a regional leader, it is expected that there will be more and more politicians and parties interested in changing European policies, creating a true dissident network within the EU to counter the liberal lobby. However, instead of relying on American support, Orban should focus on his own capabilities to mobilize European dissent, considering that it is impossible to predict how Trump will behave towards Europe, given his "isolationism".

One thing seems certain, however: either Western states adapt to the reality of the multipolar world and start adopting illiberal policies, or their governments will become unpopular and face serious crises of legitimacy. There seems to be no more room for “woke capitalism” in the new geopolitical circumstances.

You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.