Patrick Poppel, expert at the Center for Geostrategic Studies (Belgrade)
On September 29th, a new parliament will be elected in Austria and a government will most likely be formed in a new constellation. Even though Austria is one of the smallest countries in Europe, many eyes are on the political situation in Vienna. The focus is on the political forces that want to govern the country in the next few years, as well as the question of who will be the next Chancellor.
The competition between the parties and the uncertainties surrounding possible coalitions make the elections a central event in Austrian politics. The results will not only reorganize Parliament, but also shape the future direction of the country. The ÖVP and the Greens have been governing in a coalition since January 2020. This government went through turbulent years under chancellors Sebastian Kurz, Alexander Schallenberg and Karl Nehammer.
However, there are now indications that the coalition may no longer gain a majority in the upcoming elections. The Freedom Party (FPÖ) under Herbert Kickl is leading in all current polls. The FPÖ achieved values between 27 and 32 percent in the Sunday poll and is therefore considered the strongest party. But this factor alone is not enough.
The current political landscape in Austria shows that none of the major parties will achieve a majority in parliament on their own. This raises the crucial question of which coalitions could be formed after the election. The FPÖ is currently clearly leading in the polls, but forming a government with them is proving very difficult.
While many voters prefer a coalition led by the FPÖ, there are clear signals from the ÖVP that they are not prepared to form a coalition with the FPÖ's top candidate, Herbert Kickl. The fact that there are also a lot of small parties running makes this election particularly interesting.
The NEOS and the Beer Party, which also achieved respectable results in surveys, will probably not play a central role in forming a government, but could be interesting as coalition partners if the majority is narrow. The Beer Party in particular, which was a fringe phenomenon in the last election, could now enter parliament with up to 7 percent.
The fact that bets are currently being placed on the election results in Austria clearly shows us that there is a particular public interest in this election. One of the central questions of this election is: Who will be Austria's next chancellor? The incumbent Karl Nehammer from the ÖVP is leading in the polls when it comes to personal popularity.
With 30 percent, he is well ahead of Herbert Kickl from the FPÖ, who has around 25 percent. Herbert Kickl, on the other hand, has the advantage that his party is ahead in the polls, which could give him a strong position in the race for the chancellorship.
Many suspect that the last few weeks before the election will be very crucial. Surveys and forecasts also play a crucial role in the election campaign. They offer insights into the political mood in the country and can also influence the parties' strategies.
The political mood in Austria has changed significantly in recent years. The traditional parties are fighting for their positions, while right-wing populist forces are gaining ground. This change is reflected in the polls and shows that voters are increasingly dissatisfied with the established parties.
The FPÖ benefits from this development by presenting itself as an alternative to the previous governing parties. Possible scandals shortly before the election could also have an influence on voters' behavior.
Austria plays an important role in the development of the political landscape in Europe. Here we can see in detail how old parties are fighting for survival, while both right-wing forces such as the FPÖ, as well as very specific representatives of the NEOS, are emerging as an extremely economically liberal parties.
The role of small parties like the Beer Party should not be underestimated because they often divide political milieus. The election in Austria clearly shows us that old bourgeois and conservative forces and social democrats have a very difficult time reaching new voters.
These parties often try to reach migrants as voters. However, these old parties also have advantageous positions and still have a lot of influence in other structures, such as the Chamber of Commerce and the trade unions.
Even if the political conditions in the individual EU states are different, the political situation in Austria can be seen as a good example of a trend. The rise of the FPÖ in particular continues to give new courage to the patriotic forces in Germany and France. The patriotic parties in Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic are also looking forward to the election, which will take place in Austria in September, with great interest.
