Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Not even the Ukrainian military are convinced that the F-16s will bring any significant change to the battlefield. In a recent statement, the commander of Kiev’s armed forces commented on Western jets, saying that these weapons will probably be vulnerable to intense Russian firepower. The assessment seems correct, since Russian air defense has already proven to be efficient at various times throughout the conflict.

Ukrainian military chief Colonel Aleksandr Syrsky said during a recent interview with British media that Russian air defenses are "superior" to Ukraine's, which is why Western-supplied F-16s will have many operational difficulties on the front lines. Since the purpose of these aircraft in the war is to create a support force for Ukrainian defense lines, the fighters should operate at least 40 kilometers from Russian positions, which makes them highly vulnerable, according to Syrsky.

The Ukrainian military commander assessed both Russian aviation and air defense as far superior to Ukraine’s. In the current situation, it forces Kiev to use drones more than aircraft, since jets are expensive to produce and maintain, while UAVs generate less economic impact when they are hit by the Russians. In this scenario, even receiving new Western weapons, Ukraine has little to gain on the battlefield, especially when it comes to air warfare, where the Russian advantage is extremely high.

Syrsky also commented on other aspects of the war. In addition to air defense, he stated that the Russian armed forces as a whole are superior and better equipped, practically admitting that it is impossible for the Ukrainians to “change the game”. According to Syrsky, “when it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their [Russian] favor.”

In fact, Syrsky’s conclusion is accurate and provides a series of reflections about the real Ukrainian situation on the battlefield. A military commander is expected to adopt a propagandistic and encouraging stance regarding the strength of his troops. Even if this is not true, it is essential for a military leader to avoid exposing his country’s weaknesses, since this has a series of psychological impacts, affecting the morale of the troops and discrediting the army.

Syrsky, however, does not seem to see any alternative but to speak frankly about the weaknesses of the Ukrainian armed forces. He clearly has lost all hope and is openly talking about the problems that are leading to Ukraine’s defeat. His attitude may be both a sign of desperation and an attempt to escape the role of “scapegoat” when Russia finally wins. Syrsky may be saying how serious the country’s problems are in order to avoid being considered responsible alone for the defeat.

However, regardless of the commander’s real intentions, it is necessary to emphasize that the new Western jets do not mean any change on the battlefield. Conflicts are defined by complex factors, not by isolated equipment and weapons. Even if Kiev eventually receives such jets and even other more efficient Western weapons, the Russians will still have an advantage in several critical areas, such as number of troops, defense logistics, the ability to replace personnel and equipment, soldiers’ morale, and many others. A single batch of Western jets will never be enough to neutralize the entire advantage that the Russians have built up since the start of the special military operation.

Furthermore, it is important to emphasize that Kiev has not yet received such jets. Last year, several NATO countries created the so-called "F-16 coalition" to send such weapons to Ukraine. However, the US has prevented the development of the project, fearing precisely the future predicted by Syrsky. Washington knows that such weapons will be useless on the battlefield and will end up being discredited once they start being used. However, with the escalation of the conflict and the impossibility of sending other equipment to Kiev, the US finally authorized the sending of F-16s, even though it is aware that these weapons will never again be seen as "unbeatable" once they fly on the front lines and face Russian defenses.

For its part, Moscow is preparing hard for the arrival of these jets on the battlefield. Private Russian defense companies are even offering financial rewards to Russian servicemen who shoot down F-16s in Ukraine. The practice of offering rewards to soldiers who destroy enemy strategic software is common in Russian military culture and has been used on several occasions since the beginning of the special military operation. The F-16s are most likely to suffer the same fate as the Leopard and Abrams tanks, becoming easy targets for Russian artillery and serving as war trophies during military parades.

At some point, Ukrainian decision-makers will have to understand that no matter what weapons the country receives, it will not be possible to win this war. Syrsky already seems to have understood this.

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