Kamola Talipova, Intern of the Russian National Committee on BRICS Research – special for InfoBRICS
Japanese and Russian relations were often discussed on the base of Northern territories and peace treaty that both states still did not conclude. In the context of East Asia power politics, Japan had to balance against China.
Territorial issue between Tokyo and Beijing about the Senkaku islands becomes more serious nowadays, besides North Korea with its nuclear weapons: Chinese activation in the sea makes cooperation between both states challenging. To strengthen the position between two great powers, Japan organized the “Go East” strategy during the 2nd president term of V. Putin and in 2013 it initiated 2+2 dialogue by Japan, where they also discussed the role of China. It is important to remember, that in the economic sphere both states Russia and China signed a gas export deal, according to which Russia is going to export $400bn with China for 30 years, also in 2015 Russia signed a contract according to which it will supply China with Su-35 and S-400.
On the other hand, for Japan one of the most important questions was sustaining stable Japan-Russia Relations for Energy Security. Because Japan is situated far apart from central oil and gas resources and Indonesia and China became a net oil importer, Japan began to be independent from the Middle East, but there were risks, such as Arab Spring. From this point Russia is considered as the most profitable and safe way to get oil. Especially situation changed after the nuclear accident in Fukushima on March 11, 2011 Japan had to import LNG from Qatar and Russia started own LNG projects with perspective to Far East markets.
Issue about Northern territories is the main topic that stays between Japan and Russia and still nowadays prevent both countries from signing a peace treaty. Northern territories are four islands in the East of Hokkaido, that the Soviet Union joined to itself after World War II in 1945. Japanese politics, especially the main party Liberal Democratic Party are very serious about solving this problem without worsen Japan - Russia relations and to sign treaty. After Crimean crisis it was organized a census by the MOFA, where the question was about expectations from Japan-Russia relations, two main points that we can identify from answers were resolving the territorial dispute (55.0%, the Most Likely Answer) and stable import of Natural Resources Like LNG and Petroleum (49.7%, the Second Most). From this point it is clearly seen that for Japanese citizens the territorial issue was the primary one.
The second reason can be that Japan does not want to make negatively effect on general trading, which developed LNG plants in Russia and car companies, such as Nissan, Mitsubishi and Toyota, which built their factories in Russia in 2010.
Japan could have a positive impact on development of Russian Far East by export its technology resources and open more companies, which Russia needs. Moreover, because of having long border with Asia, for Russia it is important to pay attention to this area, because of rising intention between China and Japan and Korean peninsula. From the Japan side, which foreign policy especially after the World War II had really significant changes, nowadays it is especially important to stay in the middle, between the USA and Russia. The Article 9 of Constitutions and Yoshida Doctrine has its serious effect on Japanese foreign policy, due to the fact that according to the Article Japan could not have military arm, it look for ally in North Asia area against its aim threat – China, at the same time relying on the USA army becomes not unreliable, so Premier Minister Abe wants to revise Article 9 in order to end with pots – World War II history and get back Northern territories.
Another vital part of BRICS with who Japan has two-sided relations is Brazil. Brazil’s reciprocal relations to Japan have customarily been ruled by three key viewpoints: Financial ties, G4 enrollment and the crave to change the UN Security Committee, and the expansive Japanese diaspora in Brazil, generally concentrated in São Paulo. However, one issue Brazil-watchers in Japan are progressively fascinated by is Brazil’s developing nearness in Africa, together with that of the other BRICS nations. Japan’s crave to reengage Africa gives an opportunity for Brazil to reinforce ties with the world’s third biggest economy. Similar to approach creators in China, India and Brazil, Japan is increasingly mindful of Africa’s financial and strategic significance. Over the past decade, be that as it may, Japan battled to reply to the BRICS’ capacity to create advances into the African advertise. Investigators acquiesce that Japan was incapable to coordinate China’s tremendous speculations nor Brazil’s bewildering discretionary hostile.
Among Japanese analysts, there is a palpable sense that efforts over the past 20 years to establish strong ties with Africa have failed - for example, while there are direct flights from Africa to China, Korea, India and Brazil, there is no direct connection to Tokyo.
As for the Africa region, the leaders of both sides signed the Yokohama Declaration and adopted an action plan to meet the declaration's goals. The plan includes a target of 6-percent growth for Africa's agricultural sector, it doubled rice production also the Japanese government contributed $550 USD million into humanitarian aid in Africa and promised to invest even more resources in the coming years.
Japan has a strong motivation to establish its position in Africa due to economic factor: Africa's economy (excluding South Africa) grew at 5,8% annually over the past decade, compared with 3,8% growth in the world economy. In nowadays competition over natural resources, unclear crisis and Chinese competition we suppose that Japanese infrastructure and energy firm will try best to establish there. To reduce dependence on China, Japan will try to import minerals, resources from African one. Another interest of Japan in Africa is political, this region has a big number of votes in the UN, in a long-term project it is important to have good relations with it. Also as a country without troops and pacifistic agenda, Japan invests into humanitarian operations and projects a lot of resources.
The project ProSavanna between Brazil and Japan is already underway in Mozambique, which seeks to increase its agricultural productivity. It involves joint research and design exercises, triangular cooperation Mozambique – Brazil –JICA in the Nakala corridor with private sector participation. Brazil is involved in a growing number of trilateral projects, with Japan being one of its main partner in terms of numbers of joint projects. ABC currently manages 88 such initiatives across 27 countries, particularly Haiti, Paraguay and Mozambique. Trilateral cooperation projects already represent one fifth of Brazil’s technical cooperation projects and the portfolio is likely to grow.
Nowadays most of scholars, international organizations and international community have an opinion that economic power is shifting and in nearly future it can be seen changes in rankings of the world economies. Over the last period BRICS have increased not only their financial, but also in economic cooperation, social sphere, international cooperation that can be seen on the example of Japan willing to work and contribute to some of BRICS countries more. These five states represents almost 4 billion people and GDP of 10 trillion dollars. The BRICS have accounted for more than half of global growth since the start of the financial crisis in 2007. In 2020, the four original BRICS countries were ranked as four of the top seven economies. We can say that this group is almost achieved a success and have positive predictions in future. Despite the fact BRICS still need to develop relations in education, economic sphere, fight with inequality, it can be said it is a good example of diverse culture that is very crucial to Japan, that has to balance between China, USA and Russia while establishing own interests especially in natural resources and energy sphere.
