Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts.

The Holy See has pulled its representatives from both Hong Kong and Taiwan, and so far no convincing official explanation has been given. On January 31, Monsignor Arnaldo Catalan, then the Holy See's representative in Taipei (Taiwan), was posted to Rwanda, and a few days later, on February 5, Monsignor Javier Herrera Corona, then head of the Holy See Study Mission in Hong Kong, was named the new apostolic nuncio to Congo and Gabon.

There had been rumors the Church would transfer its diplomatic missions in these two countries to pave the way to establishing relations with the People's Republic of China. Msgr. Corona described it as "a regular transfer" on February 8. He added that new heads of the Taiwan and Hong Kong missions should be appointed within "three months". Beijing considers Taiwan as a rebel province and not as an independent country and is also concerned over calls for Hong Kong independence, supported by Washington, amid today's so-called “new cold war” between the two superpowers.

The Holy See, also called the Apostolic See, is administered by the Roman Curia, which is the central government of the Catholic Church. The Vatican City Sate was established after the 1929 Lateran Treaty between Italy and the Holy See and thus the papal nuncios all over the world technically do not represent the Vatican State itself but rather the Apostolic See. In any case, the See is often referred to metonymically as "the Vatican". It was represented in the 1814-1815 Congress of Vienna and was recognized as a "permanent subject of general customary international law". This means it is a subject of public international law, with some rights and duties - analogous to those of sovereign States. Its diplomatic status facilitates the Church's activities globally involving an enormous network of institutions as the Catholic Church is still the largest (non-government) provider of health care and education worldwide.

The Catholic Church has not maintained diplomatic relations with China and has not had an apostolic nunciature (equivalent to an embassy) in Beijing since the 1949 Mao Zedong Marxist revolution. After that, in 1951, then apostolic internuncio Archbishop Antonio Riberi took refuge in Hong Kong and, since 1952, in Taiwan. In 1966, this internunciature was elevated to the status of a nunciature and was officially named the apostolic nunciature of the Republic of China (which is the official name of Taiwan).

The People's Republic of China remains one the thirteen countries with which the Petrine See does not have relations (Afghanistan, North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Somali and Vietnam among them) – it maintains bilateral diplomatic relations with 183 sovereign countries. The Vatican is one of the 15 nations that recognize Taiwan and among them it is the most crucial, being Taiwan's only diplomatic partner in Europe. Most of these countries are small Pacific, Caribbean and Latin-American nations, such as Tuvalu, Marshall Islands, Saint Vincent, and the Grenadines. Losing the Holy See's support therefore would be a heavy symbolic blow to  Taipei.

Taiwan has been signaling its closeness to the Church and vice-versa; the Taiwanese Embassy to the See of Rome, for example, in October 2021, sent several sleeping bags to Caritas Italy, a Catholic organization. In 2017, the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue organized a Buddhist-Christian conference in Taiwan. In 2018, a Taiwanese Taoist delegation met with Pope Francis.

Some have speculated however that by pulling its representatives in both Taipei and Hong Kong almost simultaneously, the Holy See could be signaling it is preparing to establish diplomatic ties with Beijing. British human rights activist Benedict Rogers (founder of Hong Kong Watch), for instance, in the beginning of the month suggested that such was the case and expressed concern. China and the Vatican signed a provisional two-year agreement in 2018, which allowed both parties to jointly appoint Catholic bishops in the country. It was then renewed for extra two years and shall expire on October.

This was a major positive development and Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican Secretary of State, stated the renewed pact is "only a starting point" for better bilateral relations. Since then, the two states have become closer. Although Catholic authorities have described the agreement as having merely ecclesial and pastoral goals (not diplomatic), establishing a Petrine See's mission in the People's Republic of China seems a natural development. However, the Vatican's current missions in Taiwan and Hong Kong stand as a hindrance because of the One China Doctrine - and thus an obstacle to "normalizing" the Catholic situation in the country. There are over 10 million Catholics in mainland China (and only 200,000 in Taiwan).

In yet another complicated interplay between politics and religion, Catholics in the country have been unofficially split into two groups, one of them, the Chinese Patriotic Catholic Organization (CPCO), which accepts the state-appointed bishops, while the other, in the so-called "underground church" only accepts Vatican-appointed ones - in a situation that reminds one of the Tibetan question. The Catholic challenge however is quite unique due to its governance model and the authority the foreign Pope has over his Chinese followers.

Since the 2018 deal, however, Vatican authorities are trying to regularize the situation and the appointment of new bishops, but this endeavors have met some resistance from traditionalists within the underground church, so the division remains. Since the 1951 Vatican-Beijing break, traditionalist Catholics in China have regarded any participation in the communist-controlled church as sinful or “schismatic”, and the recent sudden Sino-Vatican collaboration (in appointing bishops) has not been fully digested yet. Some in the underground church feel abandoned by the Vatican.

To sum it up, normalizing relations with Beijing - the surest path to normalizing the situation of Chinese Catholicism - would involve setting up an apostolic nunciature in China mainland, while maintaining it in Taipei is seen by the Chinese as recognizing a rebel province. Even though diplomatic relations now seem to be off the table, the Holy See in this case will need to make a choice. Therefore, Catholic pastoral goals might depend on certain diplomatic measures because in the real world religious and political issues are often intertwined.