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Moldova’s President-elect risks conflict in Transnistria by refusing to negotiate with Russia
Moldova’s likely pivot to the West risk’s destabilization in Transnistria.
Thursday, December 3, 2020

Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst  

Moldova's President-elect announced that she will focus on “eliminating the Russian military presence” without mentioning a political settlement in the Transnistrian dispute. At her first press conference since the election, Maia Sandu, who will become the first female president of Moldova, spoke in favor of withdrawing the Russian military contingent from Transnistria. The President-elect mentions this in every public speech and judging by the intensity of her statements, the subject of Russia's military presence in Transnistria will become one of the key topics during her presidency.

Transnistria is a small territory wedged between Ukraine and Moldova. It has a de facto independence despite being internationally recognized as a part of Moldova. The de facto independence is the result of another post-Soviet frozen conflict akin to that of South Ossetia or Nagorno-Karabakh. The majority of the population is either Russian or Ukrainian, with only a Moldovan minority.

Sandu’s call for the removal of Russian troops and peacekeepers, who have been there since the signing of the 1992 ceasefire between Moldova and separatist forces, is nothing new as every Moldovan president is obliged to deal with Moscow over Transnistria. 

However, judging by Sandu’s statements, the newly elected president shows a worrying approach.

“When we talk about the Russian presence in Moldova, we have to divide it into two components. The first is the Operational Group of the Military Forces. We do not have an agreement on the location of these troops, and Moldova's position is that they should be removed,” Sandu said. “The other side is the peacekeeping mission. We have an agreement since 1992 on the deployment of peacekeeping forces. Moldova believes that because there is no military threat, this mission should be turned into a civilian mission under the auspices of the OSCE.”

But believing “there is no military threat” in a post-Soviet frozen conflict is naïve considering the recent flare up between Armenian forces and the Turkish-backed Azerbaijani military in Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as Georgia’s war against South Ossetia and Abkhazia in 2008. Sandu believes there will be stability if the Russian military presence leaves Transnistria. But the problem of Transnistria will always remain volatile so long as there is no agreement on resolving the final status of the region with input from the local people.

Sandu has not said a word about her intention to initiate dialogue with Transnistria. She also stated that she did not plan on meeting with de facto Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselski in the near future and saw her role in the negotiation process as only facilitating the activity of the “5 + 2” (Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE, plus the US and the EU as external observers) format, but not encouraging it to find a solution.

If Sandu believes the 5 + 2 format can conclude the dispute in Transnistria, it would be expected she would speak with Krasnoselski before a new round of negotiations begin in a multilateral format. However, her insistence on not prioritizing a meeting with Krasnoselski suggests she has no interest in finalizing Transnistria’s status, and will either attempt to resolve it on her own terms or use it as a dispute point to pivot Moldova towards the West.

The proposal to turn the peacekeeping mission into a civilian one is not new either. Similar talks have already taken place since 2007. Sandu must find out why these talks failed rather than make bold statements that she will work towards evicting Russian military personnel without a political and conciliatory plan in place. Such an approach cannot be considered serious, but rather dangerous and destabilizing. 

Sandu, who sees Moldova as part of the EU family, supports the idea of ​​uniting her country with Romania. Although Moldova does not directly border Russia, it is a former Soviet Republic and outgoing President Igor Dodon maintains cordial relations with Moscow. Moldova is a gateway that connects Eastern Europe to the Balkans, but the election of Sandu will allow EU and NATO advancement towards the Russian border.

Because Moldova is the poorest among EU candidate countries, and also has the Transnistrian issue, its accession into the bloc will be a long process. Sandu hopes that bypassing negotiations with Russia and pivoting her country towards the EU and NATO, she will have security guarantees to act provokingly towards Transnistria. She also hopes to bypass negotiations with Russia by allowing Moldova to be absorbed into a Greater Romania, hence forcing Moldova into the EU and NATO as Romania is a member state of both organizations.

As Sandu represents the Western liberal ideology in Moldovan politics, her endeavour to have the Russian military presence gone from the entirety of internationally recognized Moldovan territory without negotiations to settle Transnistria’s status, carries a lot of risk. Not only could it provoke a flareup in fighting, but it risks cementing and bolstering Russian military presence deeper, just like what recently happened in the South Caucasus when Azerbaijan attempted to restructure the balance of power in the region and Armenia began pivoting towards the West. Therefore, in her ambition to turn Moldova into a Western liberal state, she risks permanently losing Transnistria because of reckless ideas of settling the regions status without negotiations.

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