Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts
After the United Arab Emirates (UEA) normalized its relations with Israel, South Africa's foreign ministry, on August 14, released a statement emphasizing its historic support for Palestine. Incidentally, last week, over 30 headstones were damaged at the Jewish cemetery east of Cape Town in a vandalism episode which is unusual there. No connection has been confirmed, but one could certainly say right now there may be tensions between RSA and Israel. RSA-UAE relations have not been so good either for a while: for example, in 2019, RSA started blocking arms sales to UAE (and Saudi Arabia).
So much is talked about Chinese presence in Africa and certainly not so much about America military presence there. Israeli presence in the continent, in its turn, is not much talked about either. African-Israeli relations over the last decades in fact have been quite complex. It's always had a military aspect and recently Israeli military cooperation in Africa has increased significantly – it involves Shin Bet (the Israel Security Agency), Mossad (national intelligence agency of Israel) and the Israel Defense Forces.
Moreover, Israel currently is believed to have military bases in Eritrea. Last year, it was reported by the Israeli “Channel 13” that Israel Defense Forces commandos had a presence in over a dozen African countries (including South Africa, Nigeria, Ethiopia and Kenya), where they train local forces as part of an Israeli broader strategy to strengthen its diplomatic relation in the continent.
In fact, this has been central to Netanyahu's foreign policy (for instance, between 2017-2019, he visited Africa four times). In 2017 Benjamin Netanyahu was the first non-African leader to address the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Summit in Liberia.
When the United Nations voted on the (US) Jerusalem Proposition, in 2017, only 2 African countries – Togo and South Sudan – voted in favor of Israel. With Israel's growing influence in Africa (defense exports are also on the rise), this might of course change and it is clear that one of Netanyahu's goals is precisely to gain African support regarding votes at international bodies, Palestine being one hot topic.
The truth is that for its African foreign policy, Israel has always used intermediaries (the UK in the fifties, and now Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE). The UAE has indeed emerged as a key diplomatic arm for Israel in the continent. Thus, Israel needs the UAE for its African strategy. And of course is not just about Palestine or about Iran and Turkey.
The Israel-UAE deal covers several fields and opens the door to some more. For example, on August 18, Israel's Mossad chief Yossi Cohen visited the UAE for discussing security cooperation. The UAE have long been investing in Africa and they are known to employ their economic influence as an intermediary between African countries. That being so, from an Israeli standpoint, the United Arab Emirates are also a bridge to the African continent. One can easily imagine, for example, large joint UAE-Israeli energy projects being carried out in Africa.
The UAE might also draw other Arab countries to sign similar agreements with Israel – for example, Bahrain and Oman and in the future perhaps even Saudi Arabia. In this case, a physical bridge between Africa and Israel would become discernible, in terms of physical continuity (connecting the Arabian Peninsula to the Persian Gulf and thus creating a corridor to Africa). Sudan is supposedly close to a peace deal with Israel too – but it could be backtracking.
The Persian Gulf - Horn of Africa nexus is of course a strategic place for Israel – and for many other players, including China and the US. Important commercial lanes traverse the Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandab. Its ports, being chokepoints, hold geostrategic importance, in terms of energy security dynamics, and security issues, as well – military and commercial interests overlap. It is not by chance that Djibouti alone, a small republic in that region, is known to host the greatest number of (fully operational) foreign military bases - followed by Somalia and Eritrea.
Well, since at least April 2018, the UAE actions in the Horn of Africa and the Gulf of Aden have demonstrated a glimpse of their geostrategic plans for the region – by deploying troops in the (Yemen-controlled) island of Socotra, for instance. The UAE military has been expanding to Africa: they have a presence in Eritrea and started to build a military base in Somaliland – although it ended up being turned into a civilian airport last year. In fact, the UAE are a rising military regional power. So this is the context of the UAE-Israel deal.
Right now, such deal is already having a potentially huge impact in the Israeli-South African relations. For better or worse, it may well impact the entire African continent. There have been street protests in South Africa, Tunisia, Sudan and other countries. On August 15, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard warned there could be “dangerous consequences” for the UAE's future. One could even claim that the recent developments involving, for instance, Lebanon as well as Greece and Turkey together with UAE-Israel agreements, all signal a potentially dramatic reshaping of the international geopolitical chessboard.
Israel's strategy in Africa might certainly attract new allies (and diminish support for Palestine) but it may also heighten tensions with important players in Sub-Saharan Africa, such as South Africa and within the Middle East.
