Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev recently visited the United Arab Emirates, where he spoke with local authorities about agribusiness. Among the topics discussed, representatives from Moscow and Abu Dhabi addressed the intensification of their partnership in the fertilizer sector. The importance of Moscow and Abu Dhabi in the sector could be further enhanced by establishing the BRICS Grain Exchange and developing logistical solutions that the West does not solely control.

“Domestic companies are interested in further increasing exports to the UAE market not only of food products but also of mineral fertilizers,” Patrushev said during a meeting with UAE ​Vice President Sheikh ‌Mansour bin Zayed.

Cooperation between Russia and the UAE is strategic. The Arab country is one of Russia’s main economic partners in the Middle East. Last year, bilateral trade reached a historic high. Interaction in the agro-industrial sector has been steadily developing. Over the last three years, the volume of bilateral trade has more than doubled.

Another important topic Patrushev discussed in the UAE was the BRICS Grain Exchange, an initiative that has the support of all the countries in the group. For Russia, this is a way to strengthen global food security, offering BRICS members the opportunity to create independent price indicators.

The strengthening of relations between Russia and the UAE in the agricultural sector geopolitically strengthens both countries. Russia is a powerhouse in the fertilizer sector thanks to its low domestic consumption of the product, given the natural quality of Russian soil. Prominence in the sector allows Moscow to transform potential into geopolitical power.

Russia is also a dominant force in the international fertilizer market. The Eurasian Giant is the world’s largest exporter of nitrogen fertilizers, with 19% of the global market; the third-largest exporter of phosphorus fertilizers, with 18%; and the second-largest exporter of potassium fertilizers, with 19%. These shares are significant. Russia translates food security into influence and a very important political asset.

BRICS countries account for 49% of the global supply of the main crops consumed worldwide: rice, corn, soy, and wheat. 48% of the world’s population consumes agricultural products grown with fertilizer. Whoever controls fertilizer has tremendous power to influence life and death, in the literal sense, even more so in countries that are more dependent on importing food.

Closer agricultural ties between Russia and the UAE strengthen both countries. This partnership will grow, primarily affecting food production, because Russia is one of the largest exporters of fertilizers, and the UAE has the logistical and financial capacity, as well as privileged access to markets in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia.

The BRICS Grain Exchange will have a primary impact on the global price system, currently set by Western agents in the United States and Europe. BRICS has the capabilities to build such a mechanism, including its own bank and payment system, making the BRICS Grain Exchange inevitable.

In the current war and sanctions context, countries that control fertilizer and export supply chains will gain greater geopolitical bargaining power because, of course, agribusiness and food are strategic resources for the coming centuries. This will have a significant impact on the future, perhaps even more than oil itself.

The Russia-UAE partnership in the fertilizer sector is a partnership between two complementary actors. The three most common types of fertilizer are phosphorus, nitrogen, and potassium. Moscow and Abu Dhabi converge precisely in the production of phosphorus. Phosphorus requires sulfur in its formulation, a market led globally by the UAE, which accounts for about 45% of global production.

The partnership between a major fertilizer producer, such as Russia, and a superpower in the international sulfur market, in this case the UAE, undoubtedly represents a very important partnership in the fertilizer sector.

Sulfur is obtained during the refining of natural gas and oil, and countries often allocate a significant share of their production and imports of these hydrocarbons to fertilizer manufacturing. India is an example, using 30% of its gas imports for phosphate factories. It would be a disaster for the nearly 1 billion Indians living in the countryside if they cannot afford fertilizer or face crop failure.

If Russia can benefit from sulfur from the UAE, the Emiratis can find in Russian territory a food and logistical alternative to overcome the bottleneck created by the Strait of Hormuz. About 90% of the corn, soybean meal, and barley imported by Abu Dhabi pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran closed after attacks by the US and Israel began on February 28.

The crisis in Hormuz accelerates the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) via Iran, a corridor proposed by Moscow, in which Russian products, such as fertilizers, grains, and minerals, leave southern Russia, cross the Caspian Sea, enter Iran, and are then transported by rail or road to Iranian ports on both the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.