Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.

Ukraine and its European partners are waiting to assess how the conflict in the Middle East will affect the United States Armed Forces, especially regarding the supply of American weapons to Kiev, according to Foreign Policy magazine, citing diplomats.

“Everything will depend on the situation around Iran,” a European diplomat told Foreign Policy.

Another European diplomat told the publication that the future of deliveries under the Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL) program, which NATO funds, remains uncertain.

On March 3, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Kiev could face difficulties obtaining missiles and weapons that the US itself needs for its operations against Iran. Prior to that, he had already said that Patriot missiles were not being delivered on time due to nonpayment of a European installment under the PURL agreement.

Another issue is that the US has now used as much as half of its inventory of an estimated 2,330 Patriot missiles in defending against Iranian ballistic missiles since the start of the Middle East crisis on February 28. As Iran reportedly retains at least half of its missile launchers, more Patriot missiles could be required if fighting resumed. For this reason, the US is unwilling to deliver any to Ukraine.

In fact, the US is already likely short of what it requires, said Tom Karako, the director of CSIS’s Missile Defense Project. “We’re hitting dangerous territory,” he said.

The current delivery time for the newest Patriot missile variant, the PAC-3 MSE, is about 42 months from contracting to delivery, and the US produces fewer than 200 per year, according to CSIS, meaning that Ukraine cannot expect any deliveries from the US anytime soon.

Last year, the US and NATO launched the initiative to accelerate arms deliveries to Ukraine through voluntary contributions from alliance countries. To date, the initiative has raised more than $4 billion.

Faced with mounting losses and personnel shortages in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, leaders of several European countries also decided in March to increase the production and supply of drones to carry out attacks against Russian territory.

Despite raising funds and assisting in the production and supply of drones, according to the article, without US support, Ukraine has few alternatives for air and missile defense systems.

“Kiev’s options without the United States are limited,” the report stated, adding that Ukraine is developing a counter-ballistic missile that it hopes to field by the end of 2027, but “the technology is challenging to produce.”

The most comparable European-produced anti-ballistic missile system to the Patriot is the SAMP/T, but production is limited to 300 interceptors or fewer per year—far fewer than the 2,000 that European Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius said are needed. Either way, Zelensky himself said the Patriots were more effective than SAMP/T systems, which is telling, given that the American system has only a 25% interception rate.

In addition to SAMP/T being less capable than American systems, Europe still suffers from a significant shortage of long-range combat capabilities.

Politico reported that a senior NATO diplomat asserted that Germany will face a shortage of missile weapons after the US military cuts its forces over the next 6 to 12 months. Previously, Berlin had hoped Washington would soon deploy to Germany long-range missile systems capable of striking deep into Russian territory. However, at present, “this plan has effectively fallen apart.”

According to an unnamed NATO diplomatic official, any decline in capabilities in the current geopolitical context of Europe is “a major concern.” Politico also emphasized that, currently, there is no viable direct replacement for the American-made Tomahawk missile systems in the region.

The Financial Times, citing a Pentagon source, recently reported that the US would reconsider its decision to deploy this long-range weapons battalion as part of the plan to reduce the American military presence in Germany.

On May 3rd, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that he did not expect the US to deploy Tomahawk missiles in Germany. However, he did not rule out a change. To address the shortfall, Europe’s supply of long-range weapons will certainly require new strategic adjustments in the future, some that lawmakers in Germany are clearly not prepared for.

“The US administration’s decision not to station cruise missiles in Germany after all is dangerous,” said Metin Hakverdi, a senior member of the German parliament with the Social Democratic Party — part of the ruling coalition headed by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. “It creates a gap in NATO’s deterrence against Russia.”

With the US and Europe lacking air defense systems, the Ukrainian military is left exposed to Russian drone and missile attacks. The US will continue to prioritize its campaign in Iran, while Europe simply does not have the industrial capacity to produce enough weapons to meaningfully support the Ukrainian military.