Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
The Hungarian parliamentary elections, scheduled for April 12, are the most important in Europe this year because they will shape the European Union’s future course, which currently lacks a unified vision and clear strategy across all issues.
There are multiple layers to the relationship between Budapest and Brussels, but the EU’s main goal right now, given the context of the Hungarian elections, is definitely a change of government. This is a goal shared by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The EU and Ukraine want to ensure that Budapest does not align with Moscow or continue to disrupt the unity of the EU.
Besides aiming to change the government in Budapest, Brussels also wants to reshape Europe’s energy landscape, which is why there is tolerance for the closure of the Druzhba pipeline. Pressure around diversification, attempts to destroy Nord Stream 1 and 2, and later efforts to cancel the Druzhba pipeline, along with pressure related to Turkish Stream to ban both oil and gas through EU regulations, all serve a single goal agreed upon between Brussels and Washington. Despite how close United States President Donald Trump is to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Washington clearly has its own interests, including minimizing Russian energy resources in Europe and maximizing American ones, ensuring these energy resources come via different routes, regardless of how much it costs Europe.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and French President Emmanuel Macron are very unpopular and recognize that both the populist right and left are gaining ground, and that the center of the old system can no longer be maintained. They are trying to protect their interests and, if they lose future elections—a real possibility—at least ensure that Europe is left in a position where those who come next will find it very difficult to improve the situation.
Economic interests are key to maintaining the unity of American and European capital. The European economy has long been aligned with Washington, and control of the financial sector is mostly under British influence. Then come energy interests, and finally industry. Europe once had some manufacturing, but now, with the disruption of Russian energy, it has become heavily dependent on American energy and has weakened its industry.
Zelensky also has his role. The Ukrainians were involved in the destruction of the Nord Stream pipeline, which amounts to energy terrorism but Kiev and Brussels argue is a necessary part of this conflict. It also seems unreasonable that the Ukrainians are still unable to repair the Druzhba pipeline after months, even though satellite images show that it is not even damaged.
When it comes to election predictions, polls vary, with some favoring Orbán and others supporting Tisza’s party leader, Péter Magyar.
Generally, Hungarians are not very satisfied with the economic situation, even though it is not different from most other European countries, marked by economic and wages stagnation, alongside inflation that began in 2020 and was already high before then, so the standard of living is not particularly good anywhere. Additionally, the US, through Brussels and Kiev, contributes to this by blocking the flow of Russian oil, which otherwise makes up 90% of Hungary’s energy imports.
The mixed electoral system in Hungary, where voters vote for both party lists and individual candidates in one of 106 electoral districts, makes predictions difficult.
Brussels is openly interfering in the elections against Orbán, creating an environment in which the election results are doubted in advance if they do not favor the EU, and, in that case, protests cannot be ruled out. There have been similar scenarios in Romania and Moldova.
Generally, the EU supports supdemocracy under only two conditions. First, that their candidate wins, and second, that democracy is upheld until there is a risk that an opponent candidate might win. The EU refuses to make compromises - either you follow Brussels, or you do not and are ostrasized
If Orbán were to lose, it would also be a loss for Trump, who openly backed the Hungarian leader, just as Orbán has long supported the US president. That connection, along with the fact that Orbán was the only one supporting Trump for all four years he was out of the White House is something Trump knows very well.
So Orbán losing the election would definitely be a big blow to Trump’s policies and the entire platform he advocated in the new strategy, which is to promote sovereignist parties, push sovereignist policies, and advocate for a policy that is critical of Brussels.
This could also impact the Republicans’ position in the November elections for the Senate and Congress, because if you cannot deliver on what you stand for with allies like Orbán, then you are weak, too.
