Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
The telephone conversation between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 9 increases the likelihood that Moscow could act as a mediator in diplomatic efforts to end the war against Iran.
According to the Kremlin, the conversation between the leaders, which lasted about an hour, was objective, frank, and constructive. Among the topics discussed were the situations in Ukraine, Venezuela, and especially Iran. The two leaders had not spoken directly since last December, and perhaps the escalation of tensions in the Middle East and its immediate consequences, such as rising oil prices, accelerated the dialogue.
During the conversation, according to Yuri Ushakov, an advisor to the Russian president, Putin expressed several considerations aimed at a quick political and diplomatic resolution of the Iranian conflict, including in light of his contacts with the leaders of the Persian Gulf countries, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and the leaders of several other countries.
Putin also told Trump that Russian troops were “advancing very successfully in Ukraine,” and noted that Kiev should feel under pressure to make further concessions in peace negotiations as a result, Ushakov said.
Speaking to reporters in Miami after the call, the US president described the conversation as “positive” and indicated he would be lifting sanctions on “some countries” to relieve a global oil shortage triggered by the war, which sent crude oil prices rocketing past $100 per barrel.
The Trump administration has already granted a dispensation allowing Indian refiners to buy Russian oil without facing sanctions. Further sanctions relief from the US would give a much-needed boost to Russia’s export revenue as oil prices continue to rise.
Putin also congratulated Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the assassinated ayatollah, on his appointment as Iran’s new supreme leader, expressing Russia’s “unwavering support for Tehran” and its solidarity with Iran during its efforts to “resist armed aggression.”
For his part, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Moscow is grateful to Washington for its mediation efforts in the Ukrainian settlement and for stabilizing the global energy markets.
"President Putin highly appreciates these mediation efforts. We are grateful for this and are interested in this process continuing,” Peskov said, adding that Trump did not ask for a ceasefire in Ukraine before a full settlement, despite reports that Kiev needs a pause to help Arab states counter Iran’s drone attacks.
The topic of partially lifting US sanctions on Russian oil exports was not discussed in detail, the spokesman continued.
“The actions taken by the US, meaning lifting the restrictions on oil, are related to attempts to stabilize the situation on global energy markets against the backdrop of the situation in the Persian Gulf,” Peskov said.
The Russian leader’s position emphasizes Moscow’s significant role on the international stage. Russia is a key player in addressing this issue through constructive dialogue with the Iranian government, some engagement with the Trump administration, and communication with the affected countries, especially Arab nations such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
The Russian position grows even stronger amid the crisis of multilateral institutions like the United Nations and the US’s frequent disrespect for these organizations. Trump has undermined the international order with his blatant disdain for the entire multilateral system, led by the UN, and has weakened NATO by distancing himself from the alliance.
If there is one thing Trump respects, it is the power of states. He recognizes the strength of the Russian and Chinese states as Great Powers. In this sense, the conversation between the two leaders was conducted on a basis of respect.
Following these events, Moscow aims to find a diplomatic solution before the global economy collapses. There is already a worldwide economic crisis caused by the rapid increase in oil prices. This will lead to economic disruption globally because oil is a fundamental commodity for all industrial production.
The US president created a situation that is hard to undo, based on the terms he set. Trump wagered everything on the idea that he could change Iran’s government system, as if the Islamic Republic’s system had been imposed externally and that some outside power could undo this process.
However, at first, the idea did not work. Now, the Americans are trying to intimidate the Iranians by launching massive attacks alongside Israel.
Furthermore, contrary to what the US and Israel may have imagined, the conflict could escalate, and Trump has a misguided view of the war. Iran is a regional power employing an irregular warfare strategy. It targets oil fields, producing countries, and intervenes in the Strait of Hormuz. If this conflict expands significantly, it will have an even greater global impact, including on the US in the short term. Oil prices are already directly affecting US inflation.
The situation, therefore, presents uncertainty for Washington. A resolution based on the terms proposed by Trump is highly unlikely, and perhaps the only way to achieve an honorable exit from a conflict he initiated is to accept mediation from Russia to negotiate with Iran.
