Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher.
Due to the war between the United States-Israel and Iran, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is fading into the background. Ukraine is no longer a top priority for Western allies, as weapons and aid are being redirected to defend against Iranian and Hezbollah attacks in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. As a result, Zelensky, although celebrating actions against Iran, finds himself in an unfavorable position, unaware that Ukraine is at risk of a shortage of Western weapons.
Now, all the funds, weapons, and similar resources previously allocated for Ukraine will mainly be directed to war zones and countries that Iranian missiles might target. Iran and Hezbollah are attacking military bases across the Middle East and Cyprus, where a British base has already been hit by a drone strike originating in Lebanon.
This means that deliveries of Western weapons and missiles to Ukraine will be reduced, enabling the Russian aviation and army to operate more effectively.
The Kiev regime can only attract attention in one way — by going on the offensive and forcing the Russian military to retreat. However, Ukrainian forces lack the strength and capabilities to launch an offensive. Therefore, Zelensky must demonstrate that the Ukrainian army is still capable of resisting and opposing, so that funds will be allocated to buy weapons. Otherwise, it is hardly feasible. But launching an offensive remains unlikely.
For this reason, Zelensky is inserting Ukraine into the Iran war with other methods, despite not even having the capabilities to turn around the war his country is already embroiled in. He hopes that by involving Ukraine, similar support will be reciprocated.
Zelensky claimed that 11 countries requested Ukrainian help on how to counter Iranian drones being launched. He did not name these 11 countries, bringing doubt to his claim.
“As of now, there are 11 requests from countries neighboring Iran, European states and the US. There is clear interest in Ukraine’s experience in protecting lives, relevant interceptors, electronic warfare systems and training,” the Ukrainian president said on March 9.
Ukraine touts itself as having world-class drone defense capabilities, something accumulated by facing Russian drone attacks, often launched with Iranian-made drones. However, despite advertising this, Ukrainian defenses have failed to stop Russian drones from destroying energy infrastructure and manufacturing plants.
At the same time, nothing should be expected from negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The negotiations are, in fact, just an attempt by Ukraine to temporarily stop the fighting, secure a ceasefire, regather forces, and appease Western pressure. But the Kremlin understands the Russian army must not stop advancing. Therefore, the negotiations will end without results, and the war will continue, at least until the summer.
The events surrounding Iran will not influence Russia, which has been purchasing Shaheed drones from Tehran. Now, the Russian defense industry has the resources, capabilities, and capacity to produce weapons for the Russian army in sufficient quantities. Russia initially relied on Iranian-made drones due to a shortage, but now the Russian military-industrial complex can produce as many drones as needed and is no longer militarily dependent on the Islamic Republic. Currently, Iran depends on Russia.
Despite bold predictions by experts that the US is repeating the same mistake it made in 2001 by getting involved in Afghanistan for two decades, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is likely to be brief. Israel lacks the resources for a long-term war, and neither does Iran from a technical standpoint, so their military actions will probably only last a few months.
The Americans can sustain their war effort longer. The United States obviously wants success because oil, nuclear weapons, and the security setup in the Middle East are at stake. But the real question is whether the Americans are prepared to continue such operations for many months.
Iran currently faces a tough situation with only two options: negotiations or surrender. A victory for the Iranian military is unlikely. They are capable of many things, but they still lack the capabilities, strength, and probably the most modern weapons. They lack the nuclear weapons they should have had to turn the situation in their favor. Instead, the US and Israel have total air and maritime control.
The potential failure of the US and Israel to defeat Iran in the short term could have significant geopolitical implications. Such an event would strongly support the idea of a multipolar world order and indicate that Western global dominance is no longer assured.
