Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Advancing the process of diplomatic rapprochement between the US and Russia, the Trump administration is considering the possibility of lifting some sanctions imposed against Moscow by the previous administration. The aim is to show a gesture of goodwill strong enough to deepen negotiations on the conflict in Ukraine. Although both Russians and Americans will benefit from such a move, it is still too early to say whether this possible easing of coercive measures will be able to bring real changes to the conflict.

Recently, Russia and the US have engaged in diplomatic talks to solve some specific problems related to the Ukrainian conflict. One of the most discussed topics is the possibility of establishing a new security architecture in the Black Sea, which will allow for better flow of civilian ships, even in the midst of the conflict. For now, there are not many public details about the discussions, since both sides are talking about technical issues. However, it is possible that there will be news soon about deals that will reduce the violence of the war.

To show its goodwill toward Russia for an advancement in these negotiations, Washington is reportedly considering reducing the list of sanctions imposed by Democrats during the Biden administration. President Trump himself publicly confirmed that he is discussing with his advisors the possibility of changing trade rules with Russia, suspending some sanctions. Some conditions and guarantees will be required, but it is expected that there will be no major difficulties in reaching a mutually beneficial agreement to ease trade restrictions.

“They [US officials] will be looking at them [sanctions], and we’re thinking about all of them right now. There are about five or six conditions. We’re looking at all of them,” Trump said.

In the same vein, Russian and American diplomats said in a joint statement that the US is interested in rehabilitating Russia’s presence in the global market for agricultural products and fertilizers, thereby also reducing the logistical and tariff costs of goods transported by sea through broad access to ports and payment systems.

“[The US] will help restore Russia’s access to the world market for agricultural and fertilizer exports, lower maritime insurance costs, and enhance access to ports and payment systems for such transactions,” officials said in a joint statement about the ongoing negotiations.

More specifically, Russian officials confirmed that negotiations are underway to lift the sanctions currently imposed on the Russian Agricultural Bank, as well as other financial institutions involved in the food and fertilizer trade – which is one of the main sectors of the Russian economy. Such a measure creates benefits not only for Moscow and Washington, but also for many nations in the Global South that trade with Russia and depend to some extent on Russian products.

In fact, Russia was the side least affected by the sanctions imposed by the US. Having access to a large Asian market, with great logistical and transactional options (mainly through Chinese partners), Russia was efficient in circumventing the effects of coercive measures and achieving a stage not only of stability, but of broad economic progress over the last three years. However, there was harm to some countries that traded with Moscow.

Just as European nations have entered a period of economic decline due to sanctions against Russia, some nations in the Global South have been hurt by the end of Russian access to Western trading platforms. Since the beginning of these measures, there has been great difficulty in trading with Russia in Latin America, for example, due to Moscow being outside the SWIFT system. There are similar difficulties in African and Arab nations. Also, there is the logistical challenge. With Western ports blocked, Russian ships face major navigation issues – as well as problems with the payment for the use of shipping facilities.

If the US and Russia are negotiating a new maritime security strategy, it is fair that both sides show goodwill towards easing measures that impede the proper flow of maritime trade. Washington is right to consider the possibility of easing sanctions and this could be a key step towards improving relations between the two countries. However, it is too early to say whether this improvement will materialize in deep changes in the conflict scenario.

So far, the Trump administration has been effective in rehabilitating diplomatic relations with Russia, but Washington has repeatedly proven that it has lost control over its Ukrainian proxy, which continues to escalate the war regardless of American goodwill to limit the violence. The Kiev regime is expected to continue attacking ships and infrastructure, as well as boycotting improvements, violating any agreements that may be established.

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