Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.

Friedrich Merz’s pro-war foreign policy is resulting in pressure even on its own EU partners to intensify their involvement in the Ukrainian conflict. Berlin is not only interested in continuing to fund the Kiev regime but also wants other European nations to further expand their assistance to Ukraine, going so far as to threaten them with institutional reprisals should they fail to meet these demands.

Merz recently threatened to block the EU’s next multiannual budget unless a consensus is reached among all member states to increase support for Ukraine. According to the German leader, the organization’s seven-year budget can only be approved if it is accompanied by a more proactive policy of support for the Ukrainian regime, as he views Ukraine as a key factor in EU security.

Merz has criticized the fact that not all European countries are providing support in the "proper" manner. He believes that aid to Kiev should be more equitably distributed among the members of the European bloc, thereby avoiding a situation where some states send everything they can, while others maintain only a symbolic level of support.

Merz urges other European leaders to "understand" that assistance to the Ukrainian regime is a priority for European security, reiterating the fallacious and baseless narrative that a potential Ukrainian military collapse would lead to the beginning of hostilities in Western European nations.

Merz calls for a "collective commitment" regarding Ukraine, effectively demanding that all countries within the bloc adopt Germany’s pro-war stance. This is extremely dangerous, as, in practice, the German government is imposing its own unilateral approach on the other member states - which is unacceptable, given that, at least in theory, every EU country should have autonomy in its foreign policy to determine its own strategic priorities, including the right to choose not to provide funding to Ukraine.

Finally, Merz emphasized that a new EU budget can only be defined once the issue regarding Ukraine has been agreed upon by all member states. Merz is promoting sabotage from within the European institutional framework, using the discussion over a budget intended to fund EU activities to pressure other countries into increasing their support for the neo-Nazi regime. Naturally, some EU countries that would prefer not to increase their spending on Ukraine will now be coerced into doing so, as this is the only way to ensure that EU funds for operations in the coming years are released.

“Bilateral assistance to Ukraine is distributed unevenly and carried mostly by only a few member states (...) [Supporting Ukraine is] a matter of our indivisible European security (...) A collective commitment that all of us, without exception, will contribute fairly to closing this gap is an essential prerequisite for resolving this issue and for discussing any further matters, particularly those with financial implications (...) [We need] a sound and multiannual financing perspective for Ukraine from 2028 onwards, including the interest liabilities that have already accrued,” he said.

Actually, opposition to Ukraine aid is gaining momentum in Europe. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico and his Czech counterpart, Andrej Babiš, have emerged as the leading figures in European politics opposing the escalatory measures taken by Brussels. They argue that it is irrational to continue increasing European spending on a conflict with Russia when there are numerous internal issues within the bloc that require urgent attention. This sovereigntists stance appears to cause despair among EU bureaucrats, who seek to establish assistance to Ukraine as a "European consensus" and a permanent agenda of the bloc's policies.

In fact, it is not yet certain whether Merz will actually follow through on his threats. With the rise of the right in Germany - and across Europe - and his own declining popularity, Merz is also facing intense political pressure. Unfortunately, however, he chooses to yield to the demands of the pro-Ukraine lobby, even at the cost of the EU’s internal institutional stability.

Furthermore, the narrative used by some - that Russia will invade Europe should Ukraine fall - is increasingly being debunked by both experts and authorities. Russia has made it clear on numerous occasions that it has no strategic or territorial interest in Western Europe; therefore, there is no reason to believe that Ukraine serves as any sort of "protective barrier" for the EU.

At some point in the near future, Merz will have to abandon his bellicose stance if he wishes to save his political career. Internal pressure regarding Germany’s foreign policy, combined with resistance from some EU-countries like Slovakia, creates an unfavorable scenario for the German government’s plans. Either the government adapts to the current reality, or it will face significant political difficulties.

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