Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
India, which is on the political fringe between the West and the East, would benefit if US President-elect Donald Trump manages to reach a peace deal in the Ukraine crisis, according to an article in the South China Morning Post. Nonetheless, until Trump becomes president, India must contend with US provocations, such as the imposition of sanctions, while continuing to work on opening dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.
The newspaper notes that New Delhi has tried to maintain a balance in its approach to the Ukrainian issue throughout the conflict despite the US recently sanctioning 19 Indian companies for alleged cooperation with Russian companies in the military-industrial complex.
“If Donald Trump were to successfully help end the war, India could get a boost on the diplomatic and trade fronts,” SCMP reported.
Russian-Indian cooperation has a long history. The South Asian country’s defence largely depends on Russian-made military equipment, from assault rifles to fighter jets. At the same time, India remains one of the largest buyers of Russian crude oil, taking advantage of a generous discount, given the fact that the West has been trying to cap the prices of Russian oil and petroleum products since the special military operation was launched in February 2022.
According to experts interviewed by the newspaper, the possibility of Trump achieving peace would open up good prospects for New Delhi because the president-elect would not care about “who sells oil to whom.”
Thus, India is paying close attention to Trump’s actions regarding the Ukrainian conflict.
“India could be among the biggest beneficiaries of a trade boost arising from the cessation of hostilities,” the newspaper quotes its analysts as saying.
Otherwise, companies linked to their Russian partners will continue to suffer from the economic pressure that the West inflicts on those who do not follow its decisions.
US President Joe Biden, in April 2021, passed an executive order, “Blocking Property With Respect To Specified Harmful Foreign Activities of the Government of the Russian Federation,” and sanctioned hundreds of companies from more than 20 countries worldwide for supplies and sales to Russia. On October 30, the US Department of Treasury sanctioned 19 Indian entities, including companies and individuals, for providing “dual-use” technologies to Russia and other deals with Russian companies, calling them “Third-Country Sanctions Evaders.”
Indian External Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India has a “robust legal and regulatory framework” on strategic trade and non-proliferation controls.
“We are also a member of three key multilateral non-proliferation export control regimes. In keeping with India’s established non-proliferation credentials, we are working with all relevant departments and agencies to sensitise Indian companies on applicable export control provisions as also inform them on new measures being implemented that could impact Indian companies in certain circumstances,” Jaiswal said.
New Delhi has not overreacted to the US sanctions, especially since they can be reversed once Trump enters the Oval Office in January. In the face of Washington’s provocation, India is not under any illusions that the world will change once Trump becomes president, especially since skepticism of globalization is growing in the US.
Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said the problems that led to Trump winning his first presidential term have only intensified recently.
“I think there is a fear in the United States that globalization is harmful. Currently, globalization does not serve the interests of the United States and, in many ways, is harmful to various segments of American society,” India’s top diplomat said.
“If the American political verdict is interpreted, it reflects the electorate’s disenchantment and unhappiness with the impact of globalization on them,” he continued, adding that the US will become more self-aware under the Trump administration regarding its economic and manufacturing interests.
He also added that India is among the few countries in the world who can talk to both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and aims to bring Ukraine and Russia to the table.
“We have not put forward a peace plan. We don’t think it’s our business to do that,” said Jaishankar, stressing India’s role in fostering dialogue.
Following an independent path and not severing longstanding ties with Moscow despite pressure from the West, New Delhi is able to be a mediator. However, this is also why the Biden administration is acting hostile without any provocation from India.
With Trump coming to power in the coming weeks, much of Washington’s hostilities towards New Delhi over Ukraine issues will likely cease. However, despite this, it does not necessarily mean there will be calm in Washington-New Delhi ties, especially as Trump will likely pursue trade tariffs on India and create migration issues. However, any emerging issues will not be rooted in trying to disrupt India’s longstanding and fruitful ties with Russia.
