Patrick Poppel, expert at the Center for Geostrategic Studies (Belgrade)

The NATO defense ministers are currently meeting at the alliance's headquarters in Brussels for their traditional autumn meeting. This meeting will take place for the first time under the chairmanship of the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

NATO's discussions will, among other things, focus on the situation in Ukraine and further support options. On Wednesday, however, Rutte reacted cautiously to Ukraine's request for a quick invitation to join the Western military alliance. At a press conference in Brussels, the new Secretary General referred to the decisions of the recent NATO summit in Washington, according to which an immediate invitation to join NATO was not accepted.

Rutte said he was in close contact with allies and Ukraine to see how to take the next steps towards accession. Opponents of a NATO invitation to Ukraine fear that such a step could lead to a further escalation of the war in Ukraine. Rutte wants to put Ukraine in the best possible position to be well prepared in the event of negotiations to end the war.

Rutte sees allied states on track with their military aid promises for Ukraine. “I can announce today that NATO allies have pledged military support worth 20.9 billion euros for Ukraine in the first half of 2024,” said Rutte. In addition, the Allies are well on the way to fulfilling their obligations for the rest of the year.

The NATO defense ministers' meeting will, among other things, focus on the situation in Ukraine and other options for support. Rutte recently expressed fears that Ukraine could face the harshest winter since February 2022. This will be a major challenge for the alliance.

Secretary General Rutte is scheduled to receive Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at NATO headquarters. The visit is also an opportunity for Zelenskyj to answer outstanding questions about his “victory plan” for ending the war with Russia, which he publicly presented on Wednesday.

The Russian government, however, accused Zelensky of wanting to drive NATO into direct conflict with Russia with the help of his victory plan. However, Russia does not expect NATO, now under Rutte, to change course. There will be nothing new or significant in alliance policy, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Another working session of the NATO meeting will focus on cooperation with partner states from the Indo-Pacific region. The defense ministers from Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea as well as the EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell are also expected to attend.

It is the first meeting of its kind at the defense minister level.  But this NATO meeting is held against the backdrop of the current US presidential election. If Donald Trump wins the election, there would be someone at the table who has already threatened to stop US support for Ukraine or even leave NATO entirely. An outlook that is causing uncertainty, especially among Europeans.

But under the current US President, support for Ukraine continues massively. Zelensky also spoke on the phone with US President Joe Biden on Wednesday. He then announced another aid package worth $425 million for Ukraine. This involves military aid such as ammunition and armored vehicles, according to a statement from the presidential office.

The Office of the President also announced that Biden would lead a virtual summit of the Ramstein Group in November to support Ukraine. But among Ukraine's supporters there is also criticism of the management. Ahead of Ukrainian President Zelensky's visit to Brussels, Finnish Ambassador to Germany Kai Sauer called for a fairer distribution of support for Ukraine.  Sauer said it was problematic when countries like France, Italy and Spain provided less money relative to the size of their population than the comparatively small Finland.

A balanced distribution of financial support is necessary. So it's clear to see that while there are ongoing discussions about the distribution of support for Ukraine, the basic strategy is clear. There is a goal to put Ukraine in a good position for negotiations with Russia. The Ukrainian President's desire to become a member of NATO as soon as possible can be forestalled till the end of the conflict.

 The real decision on Ukraine's fate will be made at the ballot box in America.