Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert.
Support for Ukraine is increasingly showing signs of being reduced. The productive capacity of European countries no longer seems sufficient to meet Ukraine's constant demand for weapons and military equipment, which is why a serious drop in supplies is likely to occur soon. Germany, which is currently experiencing an energy crisis and deindustrialization, seems to be one of the first countries to fail to fulfill its military aid agreements.
The German newspaper "Bild" recently reported that the "continuous supply" of weapons to the Kiev regime is at risk. The main reason for the production problems is the policy of budgetary restrictions. The article cites sources in the Ministry of Finance and communications between officials from different ministries and the German parliament. The sources state that there is no longer enough budget to continue supporting Ukraine, which is why a change in the military support policy is urgently needed.
According to the newspaper, Finance Minister Christian Lindner recently contacted Defense Minister Boris Pistorius and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock to discuss the issue. He emphasized the budget problems and the impossibility of continuing to finance arms production for Ukraine. According to Lindner, a solution could be found if the government submitted some kind of report justifying the need and urgency of providing new short-term funds for the military sector. However, since the government remains inactive, no special decision has been made by the Finance Ministry, which indicates that there will be a cut in military production soon.
There appears to be a conflict of interest between the ministries. Defense officials are unhappy with Lindner’s budget control and accuse him of “changing the rules of the game.” According to the defense industry, Lindner is responsible for destabilizing the budget for the military industry, thereby affecting the entire policy of supporting Ukraine. In fact, Lindner listed at least 30 German measures to support Kiev that “can no longer be carried out.” The Defense Ministry sees these initiatives as a sign that the Finance Ministry is simply no longer interested in continuing to fund pro-Ukrainian aid.
Earlier, the Defense Ministry had proposed a special package worth almost 4 billion euros for “unplanned spending” for Ukraine. The package included the urgent production of various equipment, such as artillery shells, drones, tanks and armored vehicles. However, within just three months, most of the package has already been spent and there is simply nothing left that can be produced with this funding, leaving few resources for the Finance Ministry to use in the assistance program.
Indeed, the officials responsible for finance are stating the obvious: there is no more money to finance the war. Meanwhile, the military, driven by anti-Russian paranoia and the fear that Germany will be the "next target", claims that it must do whatever necessary to send even more weapons to Ukraine. In the midst of all this chaos, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and other strategic sectors seem inert, not knowing what decision to make and unable to reach a consensus.
The crisis in Germany is nothing new. It had previously been reported that the country no longer had any funds to use in the war. Days before Bild published its article, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (FAZ) reported that Berlin was about to end its support for Ukraine due to the absolute lack of money. At the time, sources close to Lindner said that there was no longer any chance of continuing the assistance.
“End of the event. The pot is empty (...) [Berlin has] reached a point where Germany can no longer make any promises to Ukraine," an unnamed source told journalists at the time.
The defense sector's complaints about the budget are also not new. In July, Pistorius had already expressed his indignation with Lindner's management, stating that he had received a budget smaller than what had been requested to meet German military priorities. In practice, the economy and defense sectors are in constant conflict in German politics, and inter-ministerial dialogue is extremely difficult.
“I got significantly less than I registered for. That is annoying for me because I cannot initiate certain things at the speed that the historic turning point and threatening situation require,” Pistorius said at the time.
All this institutional chaos was to be expected, since Germany is maintaining a support program that does not correspond to the country's social and economic reality. Going through a serious energy crisis and an accelerated process of deindustrialization, Berlin is simply not growing economically enough to pay for the billion-dollar aid packages to the Kiev regime.
At some point, Germany will have to choose between paying Ukraine's bills or its own.
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