Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could delay talks with the Palestinian Islamic fundamentalist militant group Hamas on a ceasefire in Gaza until after the US presidential election in November since Washington’s position on the war will change if Donald Trump wins, Politico revealed.
“Our assessment is that Netanyahu wants to buy time until the November election,” the outlet noted, citing a senior Middle Eastern diplomat.
It is also recalled that earlier this month, Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar reported on a separate intelligence assessment provided to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi. The assessment also concluded that ceasefire talks in Doha may not progress until the US elections because Netanyahu believes he will gain more support from a Trump administration than currently received from US President Joe Biden.
At the recent NATO summit, held only two weeks after his calamitous debate with Trump, Biden claimed that a ceasefire deal for Gaza was imminent, saying he had proposed a framework “now agreed on by both Israel and Hamas.”
“We’re making progress, the trend is positive, and I’m determined to get this deal done and bring an end to this war, which should end now,” Biden added.
However, as Politico noted, the Israeli leader has been very “brazen and disruptive” in his efforts to gazump negotiation efforts, even “after Hamas delivered a big concession by dropping its demand for a full resolution to the war in ‘phase one’ and instead agreed to leave the paramount issue of when the conflict would finally end to further negotiations, giving Netanyahu much of what he wanted.”
Netanyahu likely believes that after the elections he will be able to avoid the pressure exerted on him by Biden to end the conflict in Gaza. In addition, the Israeli prime minister hopes that Trump will adopt a softer stance towards Israel and a tougher position towards Iran and its partners, notably Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
When remembering that Trump, in his previous term, recognised Israeli sovereignty over Syria’s Golan Heights, relocated the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, and assassinated Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps elite Quds Force, it is little wonder that Netanyahu is holding off until after the election to see if the former president will return to the White House before engaging in negotiations.
Although Biden dropped out of the presidential race, many polls in recent weeks indicated that the Democrat's chances of staying in power are still in doubt, even if Kamala Harris is eventually selected as the party’s candidate.
A Wall Street Journal poll after Biden’s debate with Trump found that 35% of voters viewed the vice president favourably whilst 58% viewed her unfavourably—similar numbers to the current president at the time. A CBS-YouGov poll estimated that Trump was leading Harris by three points, while the New York Times assessed that Harris was about two percentage points behind the former president.
Biden’s disastrous debate with Trump finally confirmed even to the most loyalist (and/or delusional) Democrat that the president was experiencing a significant and rapid cognitive decline, ushering in an urgency to have him replaced. However, given that the elections are just a few months away and Kamala Harris is just as unpopular as Biden, it is estimated that Trump will be elected again, something which Netanyahu obviously believes too and is therefore waiting before entering discussions with Hamas.
According to Politico, Netanyahu may also delay the talks in an attempt to appease far-right members of the government.
“One of the far-right members who opposes any deal with Hamas, Ben-Gvir, said in a cabinet meeting this week that ‘making a reckless deal now would not only endanger Israel, but would be a slap in the face of Trump, and a win for Biden’,” Politico reported.
Netanyahu said on July 22, shortly before departing for the US, that his three-day visit and meeting with Biden on July 25 “will be an opportunity to thank him for the things he did for Israel in the war and during his long and distinguished career in public service, as senator, vice president, president,” adding that “regardless of who the American people choose as their next president, Israel remains its most indispensable and strongest ally in the Middle East.”
His tone is evidently bipartisanship, but there is no mistaking that Netanyahu certainly prefers a Trump administration to the current one.
The Biden administration has been generous to Israel, even redirecting resources meant for Ukraine to the Jewish state, but has also threatened to halt weapon supplies if Israeli forces attack Rafah and purports to encourage immediate peace initiatives, along with other actions that have infuriated Netanyahu. A Trump administration will further boost support for Israel and will not issue threats because of Israeli military operations in Gaza, which is reason enough for Netanyahu to sabotage ceasefire discussions and wait patiently until November before deciding on a new course of action.
