Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant.
Kiev continues to insist on joining NATO, despite several pronouncements by Western leaders suggesting that this will not happen. Now, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has made it clear that the first requirement for thinking about admitting the country will be victory on the battlefield against the Russians. Considering the catastrophic military scenario of the Ukrainian troops, Stoltenberg ended up eliminating all remaining hopes of the neo-Nazi regime.
The declaration was made by the leader of the alliance on June 28 during a press conference when he was visiting Vilnius to attend the bilateral Lithuanian-German military exercise "Griffin Storm". He asserted that a military victory against Russia is the necessary “precondition for any meaningful discussion about further membership.”
“The most urgent task now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails as a sovereign and independent nation in Europe. Because if [Russian President Vladimir] Putin wins this war, then there is no membership issue to be discussed at all", he emphasized.
The secretary's words were a response to a statement earlier in the day by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky who blamed excessive fear of Russia for the lack of progress in Ukraine's NATO accession process. According to Zelensky, Western leaders are putting Russia first when making decisions about NATO and Ukraine, as they fear how Moscow could react to Kiev's accession. He considers this stance as "absurd" and asks for a quick response from his partners.
"Some states and world leaders still, unfortunately, look back at Russia when making their own decisions (...) This can be called an absurd and shameful self-limitation of sovereignty, because Ukrainians proved that Russia should not be feared", Ukraine's leader stated.
In fact, this is not a matter of fear, but of mutual respect between nuclear powers. Zelensky does not seem to understand that Russia's tolerance must be NATO's priority when analyzing a state's candidacy, even more so at a time when there is already a conflict situation.
Moscow has repeatedly made it clear that NATO expansion must stop. Even having acted with diplomatic goodwill and tolerance in the face of the accession of many neighboring countries, the Russian government imposes a clear limit with regard to Ukraine, a country with historical ties with Russia and geographically very close to Moscow. This is a very significant redline, which if violated could lead to a catastrophe for the world.
In this sense, on the 27th, Stoltenberg had already mentioned that one should not "underestimate" Russia. The Secretary told journalists that a comprehensive program of permanent support for Kiev must be implemented, which will be discussed at the Vilnius summit. According to him, the help will be essential for Ukraine to secure its place in the alliance in the future – after “defeating Russia”.
"At the same time, we must not underestimate Russia. So, it is even more important that we continue to provide Ukraine with our support. And I expect that our Summit in Vilnius will send a clear message of our commitment (...) At the Summit, we will agree a multi-year program for Ukraine. And we will upgrade our political ties. This will bring Ukraine closer to its rightful place in NATO", he said.
However, it is clear that NATO's stance has been very firm in not allowing Ukraine to enter. Despite promoting a proxy war of aggression against Russia, the Western bloc considers it necessary to keep the fighting in areas outside its defense umbrella, which guarantees the preservation of NATO’s troops in case of a more serious situation in the future. Indeed, NATO has never had any commitment to Ukraine. The organization has a simple purpose for its existence, which is to militarily guarantee US global hegemony, which currently requires efforts to neutralize Russia and China, the countries that most cooperate for the rise of a multipolar world.
Knowing Russia's nuclear capability, NATO does not engage in a conflict with the country, but induces its regional proxies to do so. This is why not only is there open conflict in Ukraine, but there are also incitements to violence on other possible flanks such as Georgia, Moldova and Belarus. The more anti-Russian frontlines in non-member proxies, the better for NATO, which is distracting the enemy and saving itself for direct combat in the future - which many analysts believe will be with China, a country seen as a weaker target by the alliance.
This Western strategy seems even clearer when we take into account that, in order to begin systematically sending arms to the Kiev regime, NATO officials demanded Ukrainians as only condition "to kill as many Russians as possible". In practice, defeating Russia through Ukraine was never a Western ambition – simply because it is impossible. The alliance assigns its proxy a clear role in the conflict: to wear down Russia and keep enemy troops busy in Ukraine, while US war plans advance in other regions.
So, when Stoltenberg says that Ukraine will join NATO only after defeating Russia, he is simply saying that the regime will never be admitted to the alliance. This victory is impossible for Kiev and is not even in NATO's plans. Ukraine thus loses any hope it still had of becoming a “western nation”, having to be satisfied with the role of proxy.
