Lucas Leiroz, researcher in Social Sciences at the Rural Federal University of Rio de Janeiro; geopolitical consultant.
Belarus and Russia agreed to start a program of joint deployment of troops. The initiative comes after the result of some investigations by the Minsk’s intelligence services concluding that Ukraine and Western powers would be initiating provocations and plans of aggression on the Belarusian border. In fact, the West's successive attempts to destabilize Belarus because of its ties to Russia only seem to have a reverse effect, further boosting the closeness in the Minsk-Moscow bilateral partnership.
The leaders of Russia and Belarus announced on October 10 that they will jointly deploy troops in the border zone with Ukraine, in response to recent provocative actions against Minsk by Kiev and its western partners. In this project, most of the forces in operation will be composed by agents of the Belarusian Army, with the Russian military serving as a support contingent in order to strengthen the tactical capacity of the mobilized troops.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko emphasized that the measure is in full accordance with national legislation, which provides for the movement of troops to border regions in case of foreign threats. Lukashenko also commented on how the Ukrainian military ambitions against Belarus sound irrational and anti-strategic, as they would force Kiev to open a new front in a war in which it is already weakened. The president said that such a plan sounds like "madness" from the military point of view, but Minsk can no longer ignore the evidence that Kiev is actually preparing activities in this regard.
"In connection with the aggravation of the situation on the western borders of the Union State, we agreed to deploy a regional grouping of forces from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. This complies with our documents. They say that if the threat reaches the level it has now, we begin to use the Union State grouping of forces (...) I have already said today that Ukraine is not just contemplating, but planning strikes on the territory of Belarus. Of course, the Ukrainians absolutely do not need this. Why would they need to open a second front on our southern border, which is their northern border? This is madness from the military point of view. They are being pushed by their patrons to unleash a war against Belarus in order to draw us into it", President Lukashenko said.
It was alerted by authorities in Belarus that anonymous sources in Ukraine had reported that Kiev is planning a type of "Crimea Bridge 2.0" bombing, which would possibly target Belarus. The objective would be to prevent any form of cooperation between Belarus and Russia, as occurred in some moments of the special military operation, when Russian troops entered Ukraine through Belarusian territory. It is important to mention that although Minsk allowed such route for the Russian troops, the country remained neutral during most of the conflict and even ignored several Ukrainian attacks that took place since March, when Ukrainian forces tried to bomb Belarus for the first time, launching a Tochka-U missile. The change in attitude on the part of Belarus resulted exclusively from the need to respond to Kiev's constant provocations and prepare for a possible escalation in attacks.
In addition to Ukraine, the neighboring countries of Belarus that are members of NATO have also shown signs of provocation. According to recent statements by the Belarusian Ministry of Defense, the Minsk’s intelligence service also has evidence that Poland and the Baltics are planning some form of aggression against Belarus, which is why security measures are being considered in order to respond to the threats.
"The situation is really complicated today. A number of hostile leaders of the neighboring countries, unfortunately, have openly outlined the goals that they want to achieve by working against our country. We cannot leave this without attention (...) We will respond to all threats that may arise quickly, accurately and adequately. For this, we have both the forces and the means", Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said on 4 October.
Apparently, the current bet of NATO and its Ukrainian proxy is to promote an escalation through attacks against Belarus. The objective is to destabilize the Russian strategic environment and Moscow's regional partnerships without needing to directly attack the Russian Federation and generate a more devastating war. Before the Russian special military operation began, the West had already financed and supported mass protests in Minsk on a few occasions, with the clear aim of promoting a regime change operation. Now, with the conflict situation evolving, apparently NATO is even considering terrorist sabotage or direct aggression.
However, the effect of such provocations proves to be ineffective for Western interests. The more Minsk is threatened by Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics, the more it is motivated to strengthen ties with Russia, which proves to be the only friendly neighboring state.
