Paul Antonopoulos, independent geopolitical analyst.
The rerouting of a Ryanair plane and the arrest of Roman Protasevich by Belarusian authorities on May 23 sparked an uproar in Western countries. The 26-year-old Protasevich was the editor-in-chief of the opposition Telegram channel Nexta, and is considered an extremist in Belarus. In fact, Protasevich even posed for the cover of White Supremacist magazine “Black Sun” while fighting for Ukraine's Neo-Nazi militia, the Azov Battalion.
In November 2020, the Belarusian Prosecutor General sent Poland an official request for Protasevich’s arrest and extradition, accusing him of “organizing mass unrest.” Poland rejected this request, thus emboldening the Belarusian government to take action on its own.
With Protasevich spending several days accompanying Belarusian opposition figure Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in Greece, something he described as an “insanely cool […] experience,” Belarus’ secret service discovered that the activist-journalist was returning to his residence in the Lithuanian capital of Vilnius on a Ryanair plane from Athens that would fly over Belarusian airspace. With the Ryanair flight only minutes from landing in Vilnius but still in Belarusian airspace, the plane was forced to land in Minsk due to an alleged bomb threat. Soon after landing, Protasevich who was on board was arrested, causing global outrage in what many described as “state-sponsored piracy.”
His immediate release was demanded on May 24 by EU leaders, who decided to close their airspace to Belarus, adopt a fourth package of targeted sanctions against President Alexander Lukashenko's government and freeze three billion euros worth of investments intended for Minsk. The EU, who already failed to topple Lukashenko in a poorly executed colour revolution attempt in 2020, will use this incident to further pressure Minsk.
However, the EU themselves must also recall that Turkey in 2012 forced a flight en route to Moscow from Damascus to land; in 2013, Austria forced the Bolivian presidential plane to land in Vienna on suspicions Edward Snowden was aboard; and, in 2017, the United Kingdom used fighter jets to force land a Ryanair flight. None of these cases led to an extraordinary session in the European Parliament, nor the introduction of sanctions.
Lukashenko said on Wednesday that “a modern hybrid war is being waged against Belarus” and that Russia will be targeted next. Although it may appear that Belarus is attempting to drag Russia into this quagmire, it is recalled that British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said on Monday that it was “very difficult to believe that this kind of action could have been taken without at least the acquiescence of the authorities in Moscow.” The chairman of the UK’s House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee, Tom Tugendhat, even proposed sanctioning the Nord Steam 2 and Yamal-Europe pipelines as it is supposedly “where the money comes from that supports this tyrannous [Belarusian] regime.”
It still calls to question though, despite Western hypocrisy, why Lukashenko made such a brazen action and arrested Protasevich. Protasevich managed to garner only 10,000 followers on Twitter (before his arrest) since opening his account in July 2011. Despite not having Twitter access and making his last tweet on May 16, the activist-journalist has gained at least 2,000 new followers since his arrest (over 12,000 followers now) and is all-over global media headlines. Protasevich was virtually unknown outside of the Russo-speaking sphere, but Lukashenko’s daring arrest made him known throughout the world. If the aim was to silence Protasevich from anti-Lukashenko activities, the Belarusian government managed to achieve the exact opposite as he will inevitably become another democracy figure and victim of the so-called regime.
The European Council had a working dinner on May 24 that was initially devoted to the conflictual relationship the EU has with Russia. The agenda was disrupted though and all focus turned to Belarus. Following the recommendation of European leaders to bypass Belarusian airspace, several airlines adopted these suggestions, including Air France, Finnair and Lufthansa.
Now that Lukashenko is under pressure, he will not release Protasevich in the manner the EU expects. Because previous sanctions taken by Brussels against Minsk have failed, it is unlikely Lukashenko will be intimidated by a new round of sanctions. In October and November 2020, the European Council imposed unilateral measures against Belarus. These not only failed to produce the results that were expected, but it in fact pushed Belarus further towards Russia when only in recent memory Lukashenko was attempting to reach out to the West.
For all the verbal condemnation by Brussels and its threats of withdrawing €3 billion in investments from Belarus, Lukashenko will complete his turn against the EU. In this way, by the EU hypocritically targeting Lukashenko whilst remaining silent when the UK, Austria and Turkey committed the same act of “state-sponsored piracy” in recent years, Brussels is ensuring that Minsk completes its 360-degree loop back towards Moscow after flirting with the EU for some time.
